CAKEConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $105 — -6.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 92 of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Cheesecake Factory, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Momentum (99): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.
Value (54): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.
Size (21): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CAKE, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −6.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 12 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $104 → $128 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $80 → $87 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $93 → $100 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $101 → $122 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $90 → $105 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 26 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $92 → $105 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $72 → $110 |
| 30 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 29 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 29 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $65 → $90 |
| 29 July 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | — |
| 29 July 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | $75 → $88 |
| 29 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 29 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $85 → $93 |
| 29 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | $50 → $80 |
| 29 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 29 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $91 → $101 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
CAKE appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 22 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.0% against +15.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 25% of US stocks
Cheaper than 59% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Cheaper than 13% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. has a market value of $5.7B and an enterprise value of $7.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.9B. The latest quarter grew 7.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $178.6M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.69.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $205.2M.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. spent $41.8M on share buybacks and $55.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 31.0×; forward P/E: 22.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.05%, paying out 31% of earnings.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. employs 48,000 people — $81K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Cheesecake Factory, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Cheesecake Factory is preparing to report Q3 earnings, with higher sales, robust guest traffic and expansion cited alongside rising labor and commodity costs that may pressure margins.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers will be looking for how sales and traffic compare with cost pressures in the Q3 results.
Zacks says Cheesecake Factory does not have the combination of two key ingredients that would support a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. The item points readers to key expectations for the report.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers may consider the article’s assessment of the company’s near-term earnings expectations.
Zacks Investment Research asks whether Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has the characteristics of a top stock pick for momentum investors. The excerpt does not provide an answer or supporting details.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers may note the article’s focus on the stock’s appeal to momentum investors, while the excerpt offers no conclusion.
Zacks Investment Research reports that Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has reached a 52-week high and examines the company’s fundamentals for clues about potential future gains.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers may be interested in the company’s recent high and the fundamentals discussed in the report.
Zacks Investment Research published an item asking whether Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is a top-ranked growth stock and pointing readers to Zacks Style Scores as a way to identify stocks.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers may note the article’s growth-stock framing and its reference to Zacks Style Scores.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $105, with estimates ranging from $60 to $128. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 13 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 92 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. ranks 92 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -6.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 92 out of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CAKE are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $60 to $128 over the next 12 months.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.0% over the 12 months to 22 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 23 Oct 2026): "Cheesecake Factory to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?". The Cheesecake Factory is preparing to report Q3 earnings, with higher sales, robust guest traffic and expansion cited alongside rising labor and commodity costs that may pressure margins.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada. Its portfolio includes The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, serving guests through casual dining, upscale casual dining, and fast-casual formats. The company also runs bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, retailers, and foodservice distributors. In addition to company-owned locations, The Cheesecake Factory manages licensed restaurants in international markets, extending its branded dining model beyond North America. Headquartered in Calabasas, California, and founded in 1972, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated plays a notable role in the restaurant and specialty dessert market through its combination of branded dining, bakery production, and licensing activities.
CEO Mr. David M. Overton · 48,000 employees · United States · https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com
