CAKEConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $93 — -13.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 91 of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Cheesecake Factory, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Revisions (97): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.
Volatility (51): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (23): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CAKE, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −13.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 19 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $92 → $105 |
| 30 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $72 → $110 |
| 29 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $65 → $90 |
| 29 July 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | $75 → $88 |
| 29 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $85 → $93 |
| 29 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | $50 → $80 |
| 29 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $91 → $101 |
| 29 July 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $80 → $93 |
| 27 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $72 → $91 |
| 24 July 2026 | Mizuho | Downgrade | Neutral | $75 → $85 |
| 23 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Sell | $53 → $60 |
| 16 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $65 → $75 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $90 |
| 2 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $66 → $79 |
| 14 May 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | $58 → $68 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $58 → $60 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $75 → $76 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $61 → $65 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $60 → $65 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CAKE appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Sept 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +79.3% against +20.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 27% of US stocks
Cheaper than 63% of US stocks
Cheaper than 10% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. has a market value of $5.4B and an enterprise value of $7.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.9B. The latest quarter grew 7.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $178.6M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.69.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $205.2M.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. spent $41.8M on share buybacks and $55.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 29.2×; forward P/E: 21.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.11%, paying out 31% of earnings.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. employs 48,000 people — $81K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Cheesecake Factory, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research highlighted Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) as a solid growth stock, citing its strong growth attributes and potential to produce exceptional returns.
Why it matters — A positive growth-stock designation from a research firm could draw investor attention to CAKE's growth profile.
Zacks highlights Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) as a strong momentum stock, noting that its Style Scores system helps investors identify top-rated stocks based on investing style. The article explains why investors should take advantage of this tool for evaluating CAKE.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers would care because the piece indicates the stock is being recognized by a widely used research screen as a strong momentum candidate.
According to Zacks Investment Research, Cheesecake Factory's restaurant margins reached a decade high, supported by gains in traffic, productivity, and sales leverage. The report notes that further upside may be possible.
Why it matters — A decade-high restaurant margin signals improved operating efficiency and profitability, which CAKE watchers would view as a key performance milestone for the company.
The Cheesecake Factory's shares have surged about 70.1% over the past three months, dramatically outperforming the restaurant industry, which gained just 0.5%. This reflects a sharp improvement in investor sentiment toward the company.
Why it matters — A CAKE watcher would care because the stock's steep rally versus the broader industry signals a significant shift in investor confidence that could warrant continued attention.
The article reports that Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) stock has been outperforming several "Magnificent 7" tech giants, including Nvidia, over a recent period. The piece highlights the restaurant chain's surprising relative strength against the hottest tech names.
Why it matters — For CAKE watchers, this signals that the company's stock is showing notable strength relative to major tech leaders, underscoring its standalone momentum.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $93, with estimates ranging from $60 to $105. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 5 Sept 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. ranks 91 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (97 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -13.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CAKE are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $60 to $105 over the next 12 months.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +79.3% over the 12 months to 4 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 4 Sept 2026): "Looking for a Growth Stock? 3 Reasons Why Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is a Solid Choice". Zacks Investment Research highlighted Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) as a solid growth stock, citing its strong growth attributes and potential to produce exceptional returns.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada. Its portfolio includes The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, serving guests through casual dining, upscale casual dining, and fast-casual formats. The company also runs bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, retailers, and foodservice distributors. In addition to company-owned locations, The Cheesecake Factory manages licensed restaurants in international markets, extending its branded dining model beyond North America. Headquartered in Calabasas, California, and founded in 1972, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated plays a notable role in the restaurant and specialty dessert market through its combination of branded dining, bakery production, and licensing activities.
CEO Mr. David M. Overton · 48,000 employees · United States · https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com
