CAKEConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $98 — -9.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 90 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Cheesecake Factory, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Momentum (98): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.
Volatility (42): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (22): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CAKE, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −9.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 20 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $90 → $105 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $92 → $105 |
| 30 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $72 → $110 |
| 29 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $65 → $90 |
| 29 July 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | $75 → $88 |
| 29 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $85 → $93 |
| 29 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | $50 → $80 |
| 29 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $91 → $101 |
| 29 July 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $80 → $93 |
| 27 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $72 → $91 |
| 24 July 2026 | Mizuho | Downgrade | Neutral | $75 → $85 |
| 23 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Sell | $53 → $60 |
| 16 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $65 → $75 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $90 |
| 2 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $66 → $79 |
| 14 May 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | $58 → $68 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $58 → $60 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $75 → $76 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $61 → $65 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $60 → $65 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CAKE appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.6% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 26% of US stocks
Cheaper than 61% of US stocks
Cheaper than 9% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. has a market value of $5.5B and an enterprise value of $7.3B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.9B. The latest quarter grew 7.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $178.6M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.69.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $205.2M.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. spent $41.8M on share buybacks and $55.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 29.7×; forward P/E: 21.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.09%, paying out 31% of earnings.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. employs 48,000 people — $81K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Cheesecake Factory, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Cheesecake Factory announced that it will release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on October 27, 2026, and host a webcast conference call that day at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers can note the date and time when the company plans to report results and discuss them.
Zacks Investment Research says Cheesecake Factory's average unit volumes exceed $13.5 million and record weekly sales are supporting margin gains. Unit growth and digital engagement are highlighted as drivers of its next growth phase.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers may track these sales, margin, expansion, and digital-engagement trends as indicators of the company’s growth progress.
Zacks Investment Research identified CAKE, along with BJRI, EAT, and ARMK, as stocks that could benefit from surging U.S. restaurant sales. The report notes these companies could gain despite ongoing inflation and higher energy costs.
Why it matters — CAKE watchers would note that the company is being highlighted as a potential beneficiary of rising restaurant industry sales, even amid inflationary pressure.
The Cheesecake Factory is celebrating National Dessert Month with a special online gift card offer running October 1–25. Guests who purchase $50 or more in gift cards in a single transaction will receive a complimentary $10 Bonus Card redeemable October 26 through November 22, 2026.
Why it matters — This promotional offer could drive online gift card sales and customer traffic for CAKE during the month of October.
The Cheesecake Factory is focusing on menu innovation, social media engagement, and digital rewards to encourage repeat customer visits as its sales momentum grows. The company is betting on these strategies to sustain consumer interest.
Why it matters — A CAKE watcher would care because the company's ability to drive repeat visits through menu and digital initiatives is central to sustaining its sales growth.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $98, with estimates ranging from $60 to $117. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 13 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 90 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 6 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. ranks 90 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -9.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 90 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CAKE are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $60 to $117 over the next 12 months.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.6% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada.
The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 6 Oct 2026): "The Cheesecake Factory to Webcast Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call on October 27, 2026". The Cheesecake Factory announced that it will release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on October 27, 2026, and host a webcast conference call that day at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada. Its portfolio includes The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, serving guests through casual dining, upscale casual dining, and fast-casual formats. The company also runs bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, retailers, and foodservice distributors. In addition to company-owned locations, The Cheesecake Factory manages licensed restaurants in international markets, extending its branded dining model beyond North America. Headquartered in Calabasas, California, and founded in 1972, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated plays a notable role in the restaurant and specialty dessert market through its combination of branded dining, bakery production, and licensing activities.
CEO Mr. David M. Overton · 48,000 employees · United States · https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com
