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CAKECAKEConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants

CAKE Stock Forecast: Cheesecake Factory, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Oct 2026
$110
+1.69% on the day

The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $98 — -10.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 91 of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$5.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
91 / 100
Median analyst target
$98
Analysts covering
18
Revenue$1.0B+7.7% y/y
Operating income$86.9M
Net income$68.4M
Free cash flow$49.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+5.1%
1M
+1.1%
YTD
+120.2%
1Y
+102.5%
From 52W high
−6.4%
From 52W low
+157.6%
$43
$117
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

CAKE stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Cheesecake Factory, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Oct 2026
91 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Momentum
98
Revisions
97
Issuance
85
Quality
71
Accruals
61
Growth
55
Value
52
Volatility
49
Size
22

Momentum (98): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.

Volatility (49): The share price moves around a lot.

Size (22): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

CAKE stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CAKE, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$40$60$80$100$120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26CAKEHigh $117Median $98Low $60

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says18 analysts
4 Buy13 Hold1 Sell
Low $60Median $98High $117

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −10.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 20 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
15 Sept 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$90 → $105
26 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$92 → $105
30 July 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$72 → $110
29 July 2026BairdMaintainsNeutral$65 → $90
29 July 2026JefferiesDowngradeHold$75 → $88
29 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$85 → $93
29 July 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight$50 → $80
29 July 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform$91 → $101
29 July 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight$80 → $93
27 July 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform$72 → $91
24 July 2026MizuhoDowngradeNeutral$75 → $85
23 July 2026UBSMaintainsSell$53 → $60
16 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$65 → $75
10 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$76 → $90
2 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral$66 → $79
14 May 2026JP MorganUpgradeNeutral$58 → $68
30 Apr 2026BarclaysMaintainsUnderweight$58 → $60
30 Apr 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$75 → $76
30 Apr 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight$61 → $65
30 Apr 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$60 → $65

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CAKE appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

CAKE vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.5% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

CAKE vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100150200Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26CAKES&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

CAKE analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+12.2%
Analysts raising
16
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
29.7×

Cheaper than 25% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.4×

Cheaper than 60% of US stocks

Price / book
10.5×

Cheaper than 9% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
20.7×

Cheaper than 14% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.7%

Higher than 46% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
24.8%

Higher than 62% of US stocks

Gross margin
44.1%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Operating margin
7.8%

Higher than 60% of US stocks

Net margin
4.6%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
38.8%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Return on assets
4.7%

Higher than 75% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.1%

Higher than 24% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Cheesecake Factory, Inc. has a market value of $5.5B and an enterprise value of $7.3B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.9B. The latest quarter grew 7.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $178.6M, a 4.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.69.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $205.2M.

  • Cheesecake Factory, Inc. spent $41.8M on share buybacks and $55.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 49.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 29.7×; forward P/E: 21.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.09%, paying out 31% of earnings.

  • Cheesecake Factory, Inc. employs 48,000 people — $81K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 3 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

CAKE vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRestaurants
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
CAKECheesecake Factory, Inc.$5.5B
91
JMKEJersey Mike's Subs, Inc.$5.3B
0
CAVACava Group, Inc.$6.3B
35
BROSDutch Bros, Inc.$6.8B
32
EATBrinker International, Inc.$8.4B
86
DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.$9.8B
76
WINGWingstop, Inc.$3.0B
46

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Cheesecake Factory, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest CAKE news & analysis

4 Stocks to Boost Your Portfolio as Restaurant Sales Continue to Surge

Zacks Investment Research · 1 Oct 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research identified CAKE, along with BJRI, EAT, and ARMK, as stocks that could benefit from surging U.S. restaurant sales. The report notes these companies could gain despite ongoing inflation and higher energy costs.

Why it matters — CAKE watchers would note that the company is being highlighted as a potential beneficiary of rising restaurant industry sales, even amid inflationary pressure.

The Cheesecake Factory Celebrates National Dessert Month With Special Online Gift Card Offer

Business Wire · 1 Oct 2026positive

The Cheesecake Factory is celebrating National Dessert Month with a special online gift card offer running October 1–25. Guests who purchase $50 or more in gift cards in a single transaction will receive a complimentary $10 Bonus Card redeemable October 26 through November 22, 2026.

Why it matters — This promotional offer could drive online gift card sales and customer traffic for CAKE during the month of October.

CAKE Bets on Menu Innovation: Can It Keep Consumers Coming Back?

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026positive

The Cheesecake Factory is focusing on menu innovation, social media engagement, and digital rewards to encourage repeat customer visits as its sales momentum grows. The company is betting on these strategies to sustain consumer interest.

Why it matters — A CAKE watcher would care because the company's ability to drive repeat visits through menu and digital initiatives is central to sustaining its sales growth.

Here's Why Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is a Strong Growth Stock

Zacks Investment Research · 29 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlights Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) as a strong growth stock, noting that the Zacks Style Scores feature in its premium research service can help investors identify such stocks more easily.

Why it matters — A positive growth-stock designation from a widely followed research service may draw attention to the company among growth-focused investors.

Bet on These 5 Dividend Growth Stocks Amid Rising Treasury Yields

Zacks Investment Research · 25 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published an article noting that rising Treasury yields are reshaping market preferences, bringing dividend growth stocks such as EnerSys and Amgen into focus for investors seeking income and growth. The piece does not address The Cheesecake Factory.

Why it matters — A Cheesecake Factory watcher would care because broader shifts in investor preference toward dividend growth stocks amid rising Treasury yields could influence how the market evaluates dividend-paying companies like CAKE.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about CAKE stock

What is the CAKE stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $98, with estimates ranging from $60 to $117. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is CAKE stock a buy right now?

Of the 18 analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 13 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank CAKE?

As at 2 Oct 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. ranks 91 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (98 of 100).

Will CAKE stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -10.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the CAKE stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CAKE are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $60 to $117 over the next 12 months.

How has CAKE stock performed over the past year?

Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +102.5% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Cheesecake Factory, Inc. do?

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada.

What is the latest news on CAKE?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 1 Oct 2026): "4 Stocks to Boost Your Portfolio as Restaurant Sales Continue to Surge". Zacks Investment Research identified CAKE, along with BJRI, EAT, and ARMK, as stocks that could benefit from surging U.S. restaurant sales. The report notes these companies could gain despite ongoing inflation and higher energy costs.

Company

About Cheesecake Factory, Inc.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a U.S. restaurant company that operates full-service dining concepts and bakery operations across the United States and Canada. Its portfolio includes The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, serving guests through casual dining, upscale casual dining, and fast-casual formats. The company also runs bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, retailers, and foodservice distributors. In addition to company-owned locations, The Cheesecake Factory manages licensed restaurants in international markets, extending its branded dining model beyond North America. Headquartered in Calabasas, California, and founded in 1972, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated plays a notable role in the restaurant and specialty dessert market through its combination of branded dining, bakery production, and licensing activities.

CEO Mr. David M. Overton · 48,000 employees · United States · https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com