CAKEConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $92 — -15.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 91 of 100 as at 17 Aug 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Cheesecake Factory, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Revisions (98): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.
Volatility (53): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (23): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CAKE, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −15.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 18 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $72 → $110 |
| 29 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $65 → $90 |
| 29 July 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | $75 → $88 |
| 29 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $85 → $93 |
| 29 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | $50 → $80 |
| 29 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $91 → $101 |
| 29 July 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $80 → $93 |
| 27 July 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $72 → $91 |
| 24 July 2026 | Mizuho | Downgrade | Neutral | $75 → $85 |
| 23 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Sell | $53 → $60 |
| 16 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $65 → $75 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $90 |
| 2 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $66 → $79 |
| 14 May 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | $58 → $68 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $58 → $60 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $75 → $76 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $61 → $65 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $60 → $65 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CAKE appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 27% of US stocks
Cheaper than 61% of US stocks
Cheaper than 10% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Cheesecake Factory, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Cheesecake Factory's stock reached an all-time high of nearly $118 per share this week. The chain is also working to gain market share among younger consumers.
Why it matters — The all-time high and focus on younger consumers signal continued momentum for CAKE's growth and market position.
Fast Company reports that The Cheesecake Factory, along with other sit-down restaurant stocks such as Texas Roadhouse and BJ's Restaurants, posted a median gain of about 62% over the past three months, according to Yahoo Finance data. The report notes this performance gap is wider than anything seen from 2016 through 2025, while fast-casual stocks like Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have stayed roughly flat in comparison.
Why it matters — A Cheesecake Factory watcher would care because the article highlights the company's recent strong stock performance relative to both its sit-down and fast-casual restaurant peers, signaling notable market momentum.
Zacks Investment Research published a piece asking whether Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) qualifies as a top stock pick for momentum investors, framing the question of whether it has what it takes to be a strong momentum stock. The article sets up an assessment of CAKE's momentum characteristics.
Why it matters — A CAKE watcher would pay attention to this analysis because it evaluates whether the company holds the momentum profile investors often look for in a stock.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated has been named to the 2026 PEOPLE Companies That Care list, ranking 30th, marking its sixth consecutive year on the honor. The recognition is determined largely by a confidential employee survey measuring the company's culture and care for employees, families, and the communities where it operates.
Why it matters — The recognition reflects positively on the company's workplace culture and employee relations, which can matter to those tracking the company's operational reputation and talent retention.
Zacks Investment Research highlights CAKE, along with BJRI, TXRH and YUMC, as restaurant stocks that stand out as industry sales rise, value dining gains traction and chains adapt to demand.
Why it matters — The item signals that CAKE is positioned among restaurant chains benefiting from steady industry growth and shifting consumer demand.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $92, with estimates ranging from $60 to $104. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 17 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 17 Aug 2026, Cheesecake Factory, Inc. ranks 91 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -15.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 91 out of 100 as at 17 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Cheesecake Factory, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CAKE are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $60 to $104 over the next 12 months.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc. returned +76.3% over the 12 months to 17 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a publicly traded restaurant company specializing in experiential, full-service dining across North America. The business owns and operates a broad portfolio of restaurant concepts, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and additional brands within its Fox Restaurant Concepts platform.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 16 Aug 2026): "What Other Restaurant Chains Should Learn From The Cheesecake Factory's Success". The Cheesecake Factory's stock reached an all-time high of nearly $118 per share this week. The chain is also working to gain market share among younger consumers.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a publicly traded restaurant company specializing in experiential, full-service dining across North America. The business owns and operates a broad portfolio of restaurant concepts, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and additional brands within its Fox Restaurant Concepts platform. Its restaurants emphasize extensive menus, generous portions, and a hospitality-focused atmosphere, serving a wide range of casual and upscale-casual dining occasions. In addition to its restaurant operations, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated runs bakery facilities that produce cheesecakes and other baked goods for its own locations, international licensees, third-party foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors, making dessert manufacturing and distribution a key component of its model. The company also leverages international licensing agreements for The Cheesecake Factory brand, extending its presence beyond the United States and Canada through capital-light partnerships. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Calabasas Hills, California, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated today occupies a significant position in the consumer cyclical sector, particularly within the restaurants and broader accommodation and food services industries.
CEO Mr. David M. Overton · 48,000 employees · United States · https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com