DLTRConsumer Defensive · Discount StoresThe 28 Wall Street analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $140 — +18.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 86 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Dollar Tree, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (93): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Volatility (45): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (9): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on DLTR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +18.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 10 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | $130 → $140 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | In-Line | $140 → $135 |
| 4 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $140 → $160 |
| 4 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | $114 → $121 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $130 → $145 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 28 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $145 → $150 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $135 → $145 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $136 → $138 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Hold | $85 → $135 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Hold | — |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $145 → $155 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Underperform | $90 → $98 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Underperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. DLTR appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. returned +35.1% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 47% of US stocks
Cheaper than 67% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Cheaper than 32% of US stocks
Higher than 44% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 53% of US stocks
Higher than 57% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Dollar Tree, Inc. has a market value of $21.8B and an enterprise value of $28.4B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $20.1B. The latest quarter grew 7.0% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.6B, a 8.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $8.19.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $2.0B, after $1.1B of capital spending.
Dollar Tree, Inc. spent $1.8B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.2×; forward P/E: 14.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Dollar Tree, Inc. employs 150,000 people — $134K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Dollar Tree, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research highlighted Ross Stores, Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree in an Industry Outlook article.
Why it matters — The article includes Dollar Tree alongside other retailers in an industry-focused outlook.
Zacks Investment Research says Dollar Tree, alongside Ross Stores, Target and Dollar General, may benefit as value shopping gains momentum amid inflation, digital innovation and changing consumer habits.
Why it matters — The item identifies Dollar Tree as one of four retailers positioned to benefit from the reported growth in value shopping.
Dollar Tree received nearly $400 million in tariff refunds after courts ordered refunds for importers. The excerpt notes that shoppers who paid higher prices tied to the duties are questioning whether any refund will reach them.
Why it matters — The refunds and questions about whether customers will benefit may draw DLTR watchers’ attention to the company’s tariff-related costs and pricing.
Dollar Tree's comparable-sales growth is broadening, with positive traffic joining ticket gains. Stronger execution, assortments and multi-price penetration are cited as supporting the trend.
Why it matters — DLTR watchers may find the added traffic and cited operational and assortment drivers relevant to understanding the company's comp-growth trend.
A Zacks Investment Research article highlights five stocks—including Dollar Tree (DLTR)—that stand out with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlooks.
Why it matters — DLTR watchers would care because the article identifies Dollar Tree as a bargain stock with an attractive valuation metric and a strong earnings outlook, indicating positive investment characteristics.
The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $140, with estimates ranging from $98 to $170. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 28 analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc., 11 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. 86 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 8 Oct 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. ranks 86 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 28 analysts implies +18.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. 86 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Dollar Tree, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for DLTR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $98 to $170 over the next 12 months.
Dollar Tree, Inc. returned +35.1% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Dollar Tree, Inc. is a North American value retailer focused on providing low-priced everyday essentials, seasonal goods, and a wide assortment of discretionary merchandise.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 9 Oct 2026): "Zacks Industry Outlook Ross Stores, Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree". Zacks Investment Research highlighted Ross Stores, Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree in an Industry Outlook article.
Dollar Tree, Inc. is a North American value retailer focused on providing low-priced everyday essentials, seasonal goods, and a wide assortment of discretionary merchandise. Dollar Tree operates discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, serving customers in the United States and Canada with a shopping model built around convenience, discovery, and broad in-store selection. Its merchandise mix includes consumables such as food, cleaning supplies, health and personal care items, along with housewares, party supplies, crafts, toys, gifts, and seasonal décor. The company also supports digital shopping and same-day local delivery in select markets, extending its reach beyond physical stores. Headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, Dollar Tree plays a prominent role in the consumer defensive retail sector by catering to budget-conscious shoppers seeking value-focused products across daily and seasonal needs.
CEO Mr. Michael C. Creedon Jr. · 150,000 employees · United States · https://www.dollartree.com
