DLTRConsumer Defensive · Discount StoresThe 28 Wall Street analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $140 — +18.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 82 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Dollar Tree, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (93): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Momentum (50): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (9): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on DLTR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +18.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 11 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $140 → $160 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | $114 → $121 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $130 → $145 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $145 → $150 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $135 → $145 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $136 → $138 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Hold | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Hold | $85 → $135 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $145 → $155 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Underperform | $90 → $98 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform | $124 → $127 |
| 31 July 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Neutral | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Neutral | $105 → $125 |
| 8 July 2026 | Raymond James | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Raymond James | Upgrade | Outperform | $140 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. DLTR appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. returned +18.9% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 48% of US stocks
Cheaper than 67% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Higher than 44% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 53% of US stocks
Higher than 57% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Dollar Tree, Inc. has a market value of $22.2B and an enterprise value of $28.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $20.1B. The latest quarter grew 7.0% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.6B, a 8.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $8.19.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $2.0B, after $1.1B of capital spending.
Dollar Tree, Inc. spent $1.8B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.5×; forward P/E: 14.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Dollar Tree, Inc. employs 150,000 people — $134K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Dollar Tree, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Dollar Tree director Stephanie Stahl sold 1,185 shares at $131.47 per share on September 4, 2026, a transaction valued at roughly $155,792. The shares represent 22% of her equity stake prior to the filing.
Why it matters — DLTR watchers monitor insider share sales as a possible signal about a director's view of the company's stock.
Dollar Tree's chief information officer sold 2,500 shares of company stock in a transaction valued at approximately $315,000, based on a weighted average execution price of $126.01 per share. The sale represented about 9% of the executive's equity stake held before the filing.
Why it matters — DLTR watchers would care because insider selling by a top executive can be a signal for investors monitoring management's view of the company's prospects.
Zacks Investment Research highlighted four GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks that combine discounted PEG ratios with strong growth prospects for 2026. The article presents these stocks as offering both value and growth potential for investors in the coming year.
Why it matters — Dollar Tree watchers would care if DLTR is among the featured GARP stocks, as it signals the company is seen as combining value with growth potential heading into 2026.
The report notes that after years of store rationalizations, divestitures, concept launches, and streamlined operations, dollar-store chains including Dollar Tree appear better positioned to recover value lost over the past few years.
Why it matters — For Dollar Tree watchers, the article signals that the company's restructuring efforts may be starting to pay off in terms of regaining lost value.
Dollar Tree said a helium shortage, spurred by the Iran war, has hit sales of its balloons and party supplies. Researchers noted this could foreshadow higher costs for other industries that depend on the gas.
Why it matters — A helium squeeze could pressure Dollar Tree's party-supply sales and potentially raise its costs, a category tied to store traffic.
The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $140, with estimates ranging from $98 to $170. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 28 analysts covering Dollar Tree, Inc., 10 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. 82 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 12 Sept 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. ranks 82 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 28 analysts implies +18.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. 82 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Dollar Tree, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for DLTR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $98 to $170 over the next 12 months.
Dollar Tree, Inc. returned +18.9% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Dollar Tree Inc. is a North American value retailer that operates discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 8 Sept 2026): "Dollar Tree Director Stephanie Stahl Sells 1,185 Shares". Dollar Tree director Stephanie Stahl sold 1,185 shares at $131.47 per share on September 4, 2026, a transaction valued at roughly $155,792. The shares represent 22% of her equity stake prior to the filing.
Dollar Tree Inc. is a North American value retailer that operates discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners. The company focuses on everyday essentials and impulse items sold at low opening price points, including consumables, household goods, health and beauty products, seasonal merchandise, party supplies, crafts, toys, snacks, and home décor. Its store model is built around convenience, frequent new product assortments, and a broad selection tailored to budget-conscious shoppers. Dollar Tree Inc. also supports its retail network through distribution centers and an online shopping platform, serving customers across the United States and Canada. Headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, Dollar Tree Inc. plays a significant role in the consumer staples retail segment by providing accessible, high-turnover merchandise in small-box neighborhood formats.
CEO Mr. Michael C. Creedon Jr. · 150,000 employees · United States · https://www.dollartree.com
