FASTIndustrials · Industrial DistributionThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $51 — -0.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 74 of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Fastenal Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (99): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (32): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (4): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FAST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −0.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | $59 → $60 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Underperform | $42 → $47 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $51 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Assumes | Underperform | $51 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $47 → $46 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $48 → $52 |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $46 |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | $55 |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $45 → $48 |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $46 → $47 |
| 16 June 2026 | DA Davidson | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 3 June 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FAST appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 16 Oct 2026, Fastenal Co. returned +24.3% against +16.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Cheaper than 6% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 99% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Fastenal Co. has a market value of $57.8B and an enterprise value of $58.0B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.7B. The latest quarter grew 15.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.4B, a 15.5% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.18.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.2B, after $230.5M of capital spending.
Fastenal Co. spent $1.1B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 41.0×; forward P/E: 35.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.04%, paying out 79% of earnings.
Fastenal Co. employs 21,749 people — $402K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Fastenal Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Motley Fool highlighted that contract customers generated over 76% of Fastenal’s total sales and that its installed base of digital inventory devices surpassed 143,000 units.
Why it matters — These figures offer FAST watchers context on the company’s customer mix and the scale of its digital inventory-device deployment.
Fastenal reported strong Q3 results, with daily sales up 15.5% year over year, expanding customer sites, and improved operating margin despite gross margin headwinds. The article says digital adoption and managed inventory solutions are supporting market-share gains and operating leverage, but views the roughly 40x earnings valuation as unattractive for new investment.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may weigh the company’s operating momentum against the valuation concern highlighted in the article.
Fastenal reported a good third quarter, though it raised concerns about margin compression. The excerpt attributes the slim gross-margin contraction primarily to customer mix, with some additional price-cost pressure, and says it is offset by several factors.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may want to distinguish the reported margin pressure’s stated causes from the factors described as offsetting it.
The article contrasts a bank product that guarantees a 1.73% rate and repayment of principal at maturity with Fastenal, which has raised its quarterly payout three times in the past year.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may note the article’s emphasis on the company’s recent dividend increases when considering its income profile.
Fastenal reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday. The headline says analysts boosted their forecasts following the results.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may note the reported results and analysts’ upward forecast revisions.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. have a median 12-month price target of $51, with estimates ranging from $40 to $60. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Fastenal Co., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 5 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 74 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Oct 2026, Fastenal Co. ranks 74 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -0.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 74 out of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Fastenal Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FAST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $60 over the next 12 months.
Fastenal Co. returned +24.3% over the 12 months to 16 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 16 Oct 2026): "Fastenal: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors". The Motley Fool highlighted that contract customers generated over 76% of Fastenal’s total sales and that its installed base of digital inventory devices surpassed 143,000 units.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers. Fastenal Co. offers a broad product range that includes fasteners, safety supplies, tools, metalworking items, electrical and janitorial products, and other industrial consumables used across production sites, job sites, and facility operations. The company supports customers through a network of branches, customer-specific onsite locations, and inventory management solutions such as industrial vending and bin-stock programs. It also provides supply-chain services designed to simplify procurement, improve product availability, and support local service needs for business and institutional clients. Fastenal Co. plays an important role in the industrial distribution market by combining product breadth with point-of-use inventory support and embedded service capabilities.
CEO Mr. Jeffery Michael Watts · 21,749 employees · United States · https://www.fastenal.com
