FASTIndustrials · Industrial DistributionThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $49 — -0.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 77 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Fastenal Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (99): The share price has been relatively steady.
Value (35): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.
Size (5): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FAST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −0.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Assumes | Underperform | $51 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $47 → $46 |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $48 → $52 |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $46 |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | $55 |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $45 → $48 |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $46 → $47 |
| 16 June 2026 | DA Davidson | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 3 June 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FAST appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Fastenal Co. returned +6.1% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 7% of US stocks
Cheaper than 9% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 99% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Fastenal Co. has a market value of $56.2B and an enterprise value of $56.5B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.7B. The latest quarter grew 14.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.4B, a 15.5% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.18.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.2B, after $230.5M of capital spending.
Fastenal Co. spent $1.1B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 41.9×; forward P/E: 34.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.12%, paying out 79% of earnings.
Fastenal Co. employs 22,230 people — $394K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Fastenal Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research upgraded Fastenal (FAST) to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), citing growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. The upgrade reflects expectations that the stock might move higher.
Why it matters — The rating upgrade signals renewed analyst confidence in Fastenal's earnings outlook, which is directly relevant to investors tracking the stock.
A 24/7 Wall Street report highlights that overlooked "boring" operators—including trash haulers, elevator servicers, and a fastener distributor—have quietly outperformed the market over the past decade while investors chased flashier names.
Why it matters — For FAST watchers, the report positions fastener distributors among steady, unglamorous businesses that can deliver market-beating returns over the long term.
Zacks Investment Research noted a weak near-term outlook for the industrial services industry, but highlighted five stocks — including Fastenal (FAST) — as navigating the challenges effectively.
Why it matters — For FAST watchers, the item suggests Fastenal is being viewed as better positioned than many peers despite softness across the broader industrial services sector.
Zacks Investment Research published an article examining how Fastenal (FAST) and Kubota Corp. (KUBTY) have performed relative to their industrial products sector so far this year, comparing their year-to-date stock performance against peers.
Why it matters — The article offers FAST watchers a relative performance comparison against a sector peer, helping them gauge how the stock is tracking within its industry this year.
Fastenal reported construction sales growth of approximately 17% in the second quarter of 2026, its second consecutive quarter of growth at this pace. Infrastructure and data center projects are emerging as important sources of demand.
Why it matters — A FAST watcher would care because sustained construction-market strength tied to infrastructure and data center demand is a meaningful driver of the company's sales growth.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. have a median 12-month price target of $49, with estimates ranging from $40 to $59. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Fastenal Co., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 5 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 77 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 19 Sept 2026, Fastenal Co. ranks 77 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -0.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 77 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Fastenal Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FAST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $59 over the next 12 months.
Fastenal Co. returned +6.1% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 14 Sept 2026): "All You Need to Know About Fastenal (FAST) Rating Upgrade to Buy". Zacks Investment Research upgraded Fastenal (FAST) to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), citing growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. The upgrade reflects expectations that the stock might move higher.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers. Fastenal Co. offers a broad product range that includes fasteners, safety supplies, tools, metalworking items, electrical and janitorial products, and other industrial consumables used across production sites, job sites, and facility operations. The company supports customers through a network of branches, customer-specific onsite locations, and inventory management solutions such as industrial vending and bin-stock programs. It also provides supply-chain services designed to simplify procurement, improve product availability, and support local service needs for business and institutional clients. Fastenal Co. plays an important role in the industrial distribution market by combining product breadth with point-of-use inventory support and embedded service capabilities.
CEO Mr. Jeffery Michael Watts · 22,230 employees · United States · https://www.fastenal.com
