FASTIndustrials · Industrial DistributionThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $51 — -3.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 74 of 100 as at 5 Nov 2026 — in the upper half. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Fastenal Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (98): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (32): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (4): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FAST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −3.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $55 → $59 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | $59 → $60 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Underperform | $42 → $47 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $51 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Assumes | Underperform | $51 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $47 → $46 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $48 → $52 |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 15 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $46 |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | $55 |
| 13 July 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $45 → $48 |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $46 → $47 |
| 16 June 2026 | DA Davidson | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 3 June 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
FAST appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 5 Nov 2026, Fastenal Co. returned +29.7% against +9.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Cheaper than 6% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 99% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Fastenal Co. has a market value of $60.0B and an enterprise value of $60.3B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.7B. The latest quarter grew 15.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.4B, a 15.5% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.18.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.2B, after $230.5M of capital spending.
Fastenal Co. spent $1.1B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 42.5×; forward P/E: 37.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.99%, paying out 78% of earnings.
Fastenal Co. employs 21,749 people — $402K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Fastenal Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The article highlights Rollins’ 100 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and points to three other unglamorous businesses with a similar record of growing through economic conditions.
Why it matters — It groups Fastenal with companies noted for consistent revenue growth, a point of interest to readers following FAST.
Dividend Aristocrats trailed SPY in year-to-date returns despite a sharp October rebound after underperforming in September. The average 2026 dividend increase rose to 4.55%, supported by recent double-digit hikes.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may find the broader dividend-growth and performance context relevant when following the company among Dividend Aristocrats.
The article compares Fastenal, Grainger, and MSC Industrial, noting that their dividends involve different tradeoffs among yield, safety, and growth potential.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may find the dividend comparison relevant when assessing Fastenal alongside its industry peers.
A 24/7 Wall Street article discusses three dividend stocks as a way to collect quarterly cash for retirement expenses without selling shares. The excerpt does not identify the stocks or provide further details.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may note the article's retirement-income focus, though the excerpt does not establish whether Fastenal is among the stocks discussed.
The article highlights three businesses with long histories of dividend payments, describing payroll, factory supplies and store restocking as needs that persist through economic ups and downs.
Why it matters — FAST watchers may note the article’s reference to factory bins remaining in need of supplies regardless of economic conditions.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Fastenal Co. have a median 12-month price target of $51, with estimates ranging from $40 to $60. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Fastenal Co., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 5 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 74 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 5 Nov 2026, Fastenal Co. ranks 74 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -3.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Fastenal Co. 74 out of 100 as at 5 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Fastenal Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FAST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $60 over the next 12 months.
Fastenal Co. returned +29.7% over the 12 months to 5 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers.
The most recent item we track (24/7 Wall Street, 1 Nov 2026): "Rollins Has Grown Revenue for 100 Straight Quarters. Here Are 3 More Boring Businesses to Watch". The article highlights Rollins’ 100 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and points to three other unglamorous businesses with a similar record of growing through economic conditions.
Fastenal Co. is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies that serves manufacturing, maintenance, repair, operations, and non-residential construction customers. Fastenal Co. offers a broad product range that includes fasteners, safety supplies, tools, metalworking items, electrical and janitorial products, and other industrial consumables used across production sites, job sites, and facility operations. The company supports customers through a network of branches, customer-specific onsite locations, and inventory management solutions such as industrial vending and bin-stock programs. It also provides supply-chain services designed to simplify procurement, improve product availability, and support local service needs for business and institutional clients. Fastenal Co. plays an important role in the industrial distribution market by combining product breadth with point-of-use inventory support and embedded service capabilities.
CEO Mr. Jeffery Michael Watts · 21,749 employees · United States · https://www.fastenal.com
