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GEO Stock Forecast: The GEO Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 8 Oct 2026
$31
+1.44% on the day

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $40 — +29.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 92 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$3.9B
Ticker Nerd rank
92 / 100
Median analyst target
$40
Analysts covering
3
Revenue$732.1M+15.1% y/y
Operating income$101.7M
Net income$47.5M
Free cash flow$59.4M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.6%
1M
−3.4%
YTD
+92.1%
1Y
+66.8%
From 52W high
−5.5%
From 52W low
+133.5%
$13
$33
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

GEO stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores The GEO Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 8 Oct 2026
92 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
97
Growth
94
Revisions
92
Momentum
83
Value
60
Quality
54
Volatility
49
Accruals
48
Size
26

Issuance (97): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Accruals (48): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (26): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

GEO stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on GEO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$15$20$25$30$35$40Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26GEOHigh $40Median $40Low $31

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says3 analysts
3 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $31Median $40High $40

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +29.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
6 Aug 2026Jones TradingMaintainsBuy$33 → $40
26 June 2026Northland Capital MarketsMaintainsOutperform—
26 June 2026Northland Capital MarketsMaintainsOutperform$30 → $40
20 Mar 2026Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
13 Feb 2026Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
7 Nov 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
7 Aug 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
23 June 2025WedbushReiteratesOutperform—
8 May 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
21 Mar 2025Jones TradingReiteratesBuy—
3 Mar 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
27 Feb 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
15 Jan 2025Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
17 Dec 2024WedbushReiteratesOutperform—
11 Nov 2024Noble Capital MarketsDowngradeMarket Perform—
8 Nov 2024Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—
8 Nov 2024Northland Capital MarketsMaintainsOutperform—
8 Nov 2024WedbushMaintainsOutperform—
19 Sept 2024WedbushReiteratesOutperform—
8 Aug 2024Jones TradingMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. GEO appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

GEO vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. returned +66.8% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

GEO vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160180Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26GEOS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

GEO analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+7.2%
Analysts raising
4
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
14.1×

Cheaper than 48% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.4×

Cheaper than 61% of US stocks

Price / book
2.6×

Cheaper than 36% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
11.0×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.1%

Higher than 62% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
63.2%

Higher than 78% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
13.9%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
10.3%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
20.1%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Return on assets
6.0%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.3%

Higher than 87% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • The GEO Group, Inc. has a market value of $3.9B and an enterprise value of $5.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.8B. The latest quarter grew 15.1% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $291.5M, a 10.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.12.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $26.4M, after $172.3M of capital spending.

  • The GEO Group, Inc. spent $177.8M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 132.3M.

  • Trailing P/E: 14.1×; forward P/E: 18.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 3.34%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • The GEO Group, Inc. employs 20,000 people — $141K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 7 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

GEO vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSecurity & Protection Services
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.$3.9B
92
BCOThe Brink's Co.$4.2B
81
BRCBrady Corp.$4.0B
96
ADTADT, Inc.$4.8B
94
CXWCoreCivic, Inc.$3.2B
87
MSAMSA Safety, Inc.$7.0B
94
ALLEAllegion Plc$12.9B
69

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own The GEO Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest GEO news & analysis

The GEO Group Delivers Notice of Redemption for All Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 and Amends and Extends Revolving Credit Facility

Business Wire · 6 Oct 2026neutral

The GEO Group delivered notice to redeem all $650 million of its 8.625% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026. The redemption price is stated as $1,043.1.

Why it matters — GEO watchers may track the redemption and the company’s related debt and financing changes, including the amended and extended revolving credit facility referenced in the headline.

The GEO Group Sells the Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex Comprised of Three Facilities Totaling 2,644 Beds for $950 Million and Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $1.25 Billion

Business Wire · 5 Oct 2026positive

The GEO Group completed the sale of its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center complex, comprising three facilities totaling 2,644 beds, to the U.S. government through the Department of Homeland Security for an aggregate gross sales price of $950 million. The company also increased its share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion.

Why it matters — This transaction represents a significant asset sale and a larger capital return program, which GEO watchers would track for its impact on the company's balance sheet and capital allocation.

These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the House

Market Watch · 3 Oct 2026neutral

Law and lobbying firms in Washington, D.C. are advising companies to prepare for heightened congressional scrutiny, noting that most modern midterm elections result in the party holding the White House losing some congressional control. These advisers say companies could face high-profile hearings if Democrats win the House.

Why it matters — A Democratic House majority could subject The GEO Group to high-profile congressional hearings and increased oversight related to its detention and corrections operations.

Recent Price Trend in Geo Group (GEO) is Your Friend, Here's Why

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research reported that GEO Group passed its "Recent Price Strength" screening criteria, indicating the stock is currently showing price momentum. The article highlights this as a potential opportunity for investors seeking stocks that are currently on the move.

Why it matters — For GEO watchers, this indicates the company's stock is demonstrating recent price strength, which may be a noteworthy signal in tracking the company's market performance.

Best Momentum Stock to Buy for September 28th

Zacks Investment Research · 28 Sept 2026positive

The GEO Group, Inc. was named to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) momentum stocks list on September 28, 2026, alongside EQNR and VG. The list is published by Zacks Investment Research.

Why it matters — A Strong Buy momentum ranking from Zacks signals that analysts see favorable price and earnings momentum for GEO, which a GEO watcher would view as a notable positive recognition.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about GEO stock

What is the GEO stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $40, with estimates ranging from $31 to $40. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is GEO stock a buy right now?

Of the 3 analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks The GEO Group, Inc. 92 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank GEO?

As at 8 Oct 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. ranks 92 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (97 of 100).

Will GEO stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +29.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks The GEO Group, Inc. 92 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the GEO stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering The GEO Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for GEO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $31 to $40 over the next 12 months.

How has GEO stock performed over the past year?

The GEO Group, Inc. returned +66.8% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does The GEO Group, Inc. do?

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government services company that provides secure facility management, detention support, and community reentry services.

What is the latest news on GEO?

The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 6 Oct 2026): "The GEO Group Delivers Notice of Redemption for All Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 and Amends and Extends Revolving Credit Facility". The GEO Group delivered notice to redeem all $650 million of its 8.625% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026. The redemption price is stated as $1,043.1.

Company

About The GEO Group, Inc.

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government services company that provides secure facility management, detention support, and community reentry services. The company designs, finances, develops, and operates correctional and detention facilities, including secure prisons, immigration detention centers, processing centers, and residential reentry centers. Its services also include electronic monitoring and supervision, secure transportation, correctional health care, mental health care, and rehabilitation programming. GEO works primarily with government agencies and public-sector partners, serving correctional and justice-related needs in the United States and in select international markets. Through its integrated service model, The GEO Group, Inc. combines facility operations with rehabilitation, treatment, and post-release support programs aimed at managing individuals across multiple stages of the justice system.

CEO Dr. George C. Zoley Ph.D. · 20,000 employees · United States · https://www.geogroup.com