GEOIndustrials · Security & Protection ServicesThe 3 Wall Street analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $40 — +22.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 89 of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores The GEO Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (97): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Volatility (34): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (26): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on GEO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +22.3% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | $33 → $40 |
| 26 June 2026 | Northland Capital Markets | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 26 June 2026 | Northland Capital Markets | Maintains | Outperform | $30 → $40 |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 23 June 2025 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 8 May 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 21 Mar 2025 | Jones Trading | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 17 Dec 2024 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Noble Capital Markets | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Northland Capital Markets | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Wedbush | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Sept 2024 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 8 Aug 2024 | Jones Trading | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. GEO appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 48% of US stocks
Cheaper than 62% of US stocks
Cheaper than 37% of US stocks
Cheaper than 34% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 70% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 68% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own The GEO Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
According to Zacks Investment Research, Geo Group (GEO) shares have started gaining and may continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Why it matters — A GEO watcher would care because rising earnings estimate revisions suggest strengthening expectations for the company's near-term performance.
On August 10, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) was included, along with AVT and NVST, on Zacks Investment Research's list of Rank #1 (Strong Buy) momentum stocks.
Why it matters — The inclusion on Zacks' Strong Buy momentum list signals positive analyst sentiment toward GEO's stock momentum.
Zacks Investment Research highlighted GEO among five stocks showing strong recent price gains and earnings growth amid a stock market rally. The report identified GEO alongside OPHC, EDRY, ENVA, and ANIK as names with notable price strength.
Why it matters — GEO watchers would care because the stock is being singled out as showing recent price strength and earnings growth during the August market rally.
Geo Group reported higher second-quarter results, driven by increased revenue from contracts awarded in 2025. The company also raised its full-year earnings and adjusted EBITDA outlook.
Why it matters — A GEO watcher would care because the company reported improved quarterly performance and raised its full-year guidance, reflecting stronger anticipated results from new contracts.
Geo Group (GEO) passed Zacks Investment Research's "Recent Price Strength" screen, which identifies stocks currently on the move. The article suggests the trend could be sustainable.
Why it matters — A GEO watcher would care because the stock being highlighted for recent price strength indicates momentum that may draw continued investor attention.
The 3 Wall Street analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $40, with estimates ranging from $31 to $40. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 3 analysts covering The GEO Group, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks The GEO Group, Inc. 89 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Aug 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. ranks 89 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (97 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +22.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks The GEO Group, Inc. 89 out of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering The GEO Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for GEO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $31 to $40 over the next 12 months.
The GEO Group, Inc. returned +54.6% over the 12 months to 21 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Geo Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government services company specializing in the provision of correctional, detention, and residential treatment services.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 12 Aug 2026): "Earnings Estimates Rising for Geo Group (GEO): Will It Gain?". According to Zacks Investment Research, Geo Group (GEO) shares have started gaining and may continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
The Geo Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government services company specializing in the provision of correctional, detention, and residential treatment services. Its primary function is to design, finance, and manage correctional and detention facilities, along with offering rehabilitation and community reentry programs. The Geo Group serves a variety of clients, primarily governmental agencies, including the United States federal government and state and local governments. It impacts numerous sectors, most notably public safety and criminal justice, by addressing demands for correctional infrastructure and services. Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, Geo operates globally, extending its comprehensive solutions to markets in North America, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. As a publicly traded company, it plays a significant role in the management of correctional facilities, influencing discussions on privatization, rehabilitation, and cost-efficiency within the justice system. The Geo Group remains a pivotal entity in both domestic and international markets, reflecting trends and changes in governmental policies related to corrections and legislation.
CEO Dr. George C. Zoley Ph.D. · 18,000 employees · United States · https://www.geogroup.com