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MTHMTHConsumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

MTH Stock Forecast: Meritage Homes Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 24 Sept 2026
$65
+1.02% on the day

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $82 — +26.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 33 of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$4.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
33 / 100
Median analyst target
$82
Analysts covering
9
Revenue$1.4B−13.7% y/y
Operating income$115.3M
Net income$90.6M
Free cash flow$183.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−0.2%
1M
−10.4%
YTD
+0.2%
1Y
−9.2%
From 52W high
−23.7%
From 52W low
+11.3%
$58
$85
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MTH stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Meritage Homes Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 23 Sept 2026
33 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
80
Value
78
Accruals
66
Momentum
47
Volatility
40
Revisions
38
Size
25
Quality
19
Growth
10

Issuance (80): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Growth (10): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MTH stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MTH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$70$80$90Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MTHHigh $93Median $82Low $72

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says9 analysts
4 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Low $72Median $82High $93

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +26.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
16 Sept 2026Truist SecuritiesDowngradeHold$80 → $72
31 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
31 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$86 → $88
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$82 → $93
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
28 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
24 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
20 Apr 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—
16 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
13 Apr 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
4 Mar 2026Truist SecuritiesInitiatesBuy—
3 Feb 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
23 Jan 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
16 Jan 2026B of A SecuritiesDowngradeNeutral—
7 Jan 2026CitizensInitiatesMarket Outperform—
6 Jan 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
4 Dec 2025Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
4 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MTH appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MTH vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 24 Sept 2026, Meritage Homes Corp. returned −9.2% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MTH vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MTHS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MTH analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−1.8%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
13.2×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.8×

Cheaper than 74% of US stocks

Price / book
0.8×

Cheaper than 77% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
12.5×

Cheaper than 29% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−13.8%

Higher than 14% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−38.3%

Higher than 13% of US stocks

Gross margin
18.4%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Operating margin
8.2%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Net margin
6.1%

Higher than 63% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
6.4%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Return on assets
3.3%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.9%

Higher than 61% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. has a market value of $4.3B and an enterprise value of $5.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $5.4B. The latest quarter shrank 13.8% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $329.3M, a 6.1% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.78.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $414.7M.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. spent $435.0M on share buybacks and $122.9M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 65.2M.

  • Trailing P/E: 13.2×; forward P/E: 10.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.94%, paying out 38% of earnings.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. employs 1,860 people — $2.9M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 24 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MTH vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelResidential Construction
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MTHMeritage Homes Corp.$4.3B
33
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.$4.2B
52
SKYChampion Homes, Inc.$4.7B
81
MHOM/I Homes, Inc.$3.6B
46
IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.$5.5B
69
KBHKB Home$3.0B
37
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.$2.9B
54

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Meritage Homes Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MTH news & analysis

Baron Real Estate Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity

Seeking Alpha · 16 Sept 2026neutral

Baron Real Estate Fund reported strong second-quarter results, gaining 11.89% (Institutional Shares). The Fund highlighted appreciation in Hyatt Hotels Corporation shares following strong first-quarter results and an Investor Day, as well as AAON, Inc. gains driven by faster-than-expected growth in its data center business, BasX.

Why it matters — The retail real estate sector fund's quarterly activity and performance provide context for MTH watchers, though Meritage Homes is not mentioned in the report.

Meritage Homes: Attractive Valuation And Strong Execution Support A Buy Upgrade

Seeking Alpha · 12 Sept 2026positive

Meritage Homes was upgraded to a buy rating by Seeking Alpha, citing shares trading at 0.8x book value for attractive downside support. The upgrade highlights strong execution in procurement cost savings, community count growth, and a strategic shift toward first-time move-up buyers, along with accretive share repurchases below book value and a dividend yield above 3%.

Why it matters — MTH watchers would note the buy upgrade and the company's execution in cost savings, community growth, and shareholder returns as factors underpinning its current valuation.

As Mortgage Rates Hit 7%, Home Builders Flash a Buy Signal

Barrons · 11 Sept 2026positive

Barrons reports that home builder stocks have been pressured by rising mortgage rates reaching 7%, but notes a valuation signal that has historically preceded strong returns for the sector has now appeared. The piece frames this as a potential buy signal for home builder equities.

Why it matters — Since Meritage Homes is a home builder, MTH watchers would care that a historically meaningful valuation signal for the sector has emerged despite headwinds from higher mortgage rates.

Meritage Homes Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast Scheduled for October 29, 2026

GlobeNewsWire · 10 Sept 2026neutral

Meritage Homes Corporation announced it will release its third quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and host a conference call to discuss the results on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time. The company noted it is the fifth largest public homebuilder in the U.S.

Why it matters — MTH watchers can mark their calendars for the company's third quarter earnings release and management's conference call discussing the results.

Meritage (MTH) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Zacks Investment Research · 28 Aug 2026neutral

Meritage Homes reported earnings 30 days ago. The article notes the stock is down 0.4% since that earnings report and raises the question of whether it can rebound.

Why it matters — MTH watchers would follow this item for an update on how the stock has performed since the company's most recent earnings report and what may come next.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MTH stock

What is the MTH stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $82, with estimates ranging from $72 to $93. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MTH stock a buy right now?

Of the 9 analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp., 4 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 33 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 23 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MTH?

As at 23 Sept 2026, Meritage Homes Corp. ranks 33 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (80 of 100).

Will MTH stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +26.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 33 out of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MTH stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Meritage Homes Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MTH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $72 to $93 over the next 12 months.

How has MTH stock performed over the past year?

Meritage Homes Corp. returned -9.2% over the 12 months to 24 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Meritage Homes Corp. do?

Meritage Homes Corporation is a U.S. homebuilding company that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers.

What is the latest news on MTH?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 16 Sept 2026): "Baron Real Estate Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity". Baron Real Estate Fund reported strong second-quarter results, gaining 11.89% (Institutional Shares). The Fund highlighted appreciation in Hyatt Hotels Corporation shares following strong first-quarter results and an Investor Day, as well as AAON, Inc. gains driven by faster-than-expected growth in its data center business, BasX.

Company

About Meritage Homes Corp.

Meritage Homes Corporation is a U.S. homebuilding company that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers. Meritage Homes operates through two core segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. Its homebuilding business acquires and develops land, builds and sells homes, and supports buyers with warranty and customer service, while its financial services segment provides title and escrow, mortgage, insurance, and closing-related services. The company serves a broad set of markets across the United States, with a strong presence in states such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, Meritage Homes is a significant participant in the U.S. residential construction market.

CEO Mr. Phillippe Lord · 1,860 employees · United States · https://www.meritagehomes.com