TICKERNERD
Menu
MTHMTHConsumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

MTH Stock Forecast: Meritage Homes Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 4 Nov 2026
$73
+9.27% on the day

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $65 — -11.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 35 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the lower half.

Market cap
$4.7B
Ticker Nerd rank
35/ 100
Median analyst target
$65
Analysts covering
9
Revenue$1.4B−13.7% y/y
Operating income$115.3M
Net income$90.6M
Free cash flow$183.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+18.2%
1M
+14.8%
YTD
+13.8%
1Y
+15.4%
From 52W high
−13.3%
From 52W low
+26.7%
$58
$85
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MTH stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Meritage Homes Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 4 Nov 2026
35/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
80
Accruals
73
Value
73
Momentum
52
Volatility
48
Revisions
28
Size
23
Growth
22
Quality
19

Issuance (80): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Quality (19): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.

Wall Street

MTH stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MTH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MTHHigh $85Median $65Low $59

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says9 analysts
3 Buy6 Hold0 Sell
Low $59Median $65High $85

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −11.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 6 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
31 Oct 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
30 Oct 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$65 → $64
30 Oct 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$72 → $65
30 Oct 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$88 → $85
12 Oct 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
12 Oct 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$93 → $82
6 Oct 2026Melius ResearchInitiatesSell—
25 Sept 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
25 Sept 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$73 → $65
16 Sept 2026Truist SecuritiesDowngradeHold—
16 Sept 2026Truist SecuritiesDowngradeHold$80 → $72
31 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
31 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$86 → $88
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$82 → $93
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
28 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
24 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
20 Apr 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

MTH appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

  • Market Radar, every Monday: the week's biggest rank moves across ~4,600 US stocks, and the reason for each.
  • The AI build-out map, free: every AI company we track, part by part, and one part in full with each verdict.

Free. Unsubscribe any time.

The AI build-out map
PDF

  • AI cloud capacity

    MSFTAMZNGOOGLORCL

  • AI chips

    NVDAAVGOAMDMU

  • AI networking and serversIn full

    ANETDELLLITECRDO

  • Data centre power

    VRTCEGGEVVST

Performance

MTH vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Meritage Homes Corp. returned +15.4% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MTH vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130140Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MTHS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MTH analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingThis fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−4.0%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
3
Fundamentals

Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.5×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.9×

Cheaper than 70% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 72% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
15.1×

Cheaper than 23% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−17.4%

Higher than 12% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−31.7%

Higher than 16% of US stocks

Gross margin
18.4%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Operating margin
6.8%

Higher than 58% of US stocks

Net margin
5.8%

Higher than 62% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
5.8%

Higher than 54% of US stocks

Return on assets
3.0%

Higher than 65% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.6%

Higher than 84% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. has a market value of $4.7B and an enterprise value of $6.0B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $5.4B. The latest quarter shrank 17.4% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $329.3M, a 6.1% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.78.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $414.7M.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. spent $435.0M on share buybacks and $122.9M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 65.2M.

  • Trailing P/E: 16.5×; forward P/E: 15.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.62%, paying out 42% of earnings.

  • Meritage Homes Corp. employs 1,860 people — $2.9M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Nov 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MTH vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelResidential Construction
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MTHMeritage Homes Corp.$4.7B35
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.$5.2B74
SKYChampion Homes, Inc.$5.3B59
IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.$6.3B54
MHOM/I Homes, Inc.$3.5B33
KBHKB Home$3.4B26
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.$2.9B35

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Meritage Homes Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MTH news & analysis

What Meritage Homes (MTH) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

MarketBeat · 30 Oct 2026negative

Meritage Homes reported lower third-quarter sales, revenue and earnings, with management citing higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures and consumer uncertainty as weighing on homebuyer demand. It said it is reducing discretionary spending, moderating land investment, managing home starts and inventory, and prioritizing liquidity.

Why it matters — MTH watchers may find the results and management’s stated responses relevant to assessing the company’s current operating conditions.

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 29 Oct 2026neutral

Meritage Homes held its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 29, 2026. The excerpt lists company and analyst participants but provides no discussion of results or business developments.

Why it matters — The call is relevant to MTH watchers, but this excerpt contains no financial or operational details to assess.

Meritage (MTH) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 29 Oct 2026neutral

A Zacks Investment Research item says Meritage’s Q3 headline numbers offer insight into performance for the quarter ended September 2026, and proposes comparing key metrics with Wall Street estimates and year-ago actuals. The excerpt provides no specific results or comparisons.

Why it matters — MTH watchers may find the comparison useful for assessing quarterly performance, although the excerpt does not report the metrics or outcomes.

Meritage Homes (MTH) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 29 Oct 2026negative

Meritage Homes reported quarterly earnings of $1.11 per share, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18. Earnings were $1.39 per share a year earlier.

Why it matters — The report gives MTH watchers an update on quarterly earnings relative to consensus and the prior year.

Meritage Homes reports third quarter 2026 results

GlobeNewsWire · 28 Oct 2026neutral

Meritage Homes Corporation reported third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2026.

Why it matters — The report provides MTH watchers with the company’s latest quarterly update.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MTH stock

What is the MTH stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $65, with estimates ranging from $59 to $85. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MTH stock a buy right now?

Of the 9 analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp., 3 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 35 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MTH?

As at 4 Nov 2026, Meritage Homes Corp. ranks 35 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (80 of 100).

Will MTH stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies -11.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 35 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MTH stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Meritage Homes Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MTH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $59 to $85 over the next 12 months.

How has MTH stock performed over the past year?

Meritage Homes Corp. returned +15.4% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Meritage Homes Corp. do?

Meritage Homes Corporation is a U.S. homebuilding company that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers.

What is the latest news on MTH?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 30 Oct 2026): "What Meritage Homes (MTH) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call". Meritage Homes reported lower third-quarter sales, revenue and earnings, with management citing higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures and consumer uncertainty as weighing on homebuyer demand. It said it is reducing discretionary spending, moderating land investment, managing home starts and inventory, and prioritizing liquidity.

Company

About Meritage Homes Corp.

Meritage Homes Corporation is a U.S. homebuilding company that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers. Meritage Homes operates through two core segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. Its homebuilding business acquires and develops land, builds and sells homes, and supports buyers with warranty and customer service, while its financial services segment provides title and escrow, mortgage, insurance, and closing-related services. The company serves a broad set of markets across the United States, with a strong presence in states such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, Meritage Homes is a significant participant in the U.S. residential construction market.

CEO Mr. Phillippe Lord · 1,860 employees · United States · https://www.meritagehomes.com