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MTHMTHConsumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

MTH Stock Forecast: Meritage Homes Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Aug 2026
$73
−0.73% on the day

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $84 — +14.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 29 of 100 as at 13 Aug 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$4.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
29 / 100
Median analyst target
$84
Analysts covering
9
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.0%
1M
−0.9%
YTD
+12.6%
1Y
−2.6%
From 52W high
−14.2%
From 52W low
+25.2%
$58
$85
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MTH stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Meritage Homes Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 13 Aug 2026
29 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
80
Accruals
66
Value
62
Volatility
45
Momentum
43
Revisions
41
Size
24
Growth
17
Quality
13

Issuance (80): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Quality (13): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MTH stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MTH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$70$80$90$100Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MTHHigh $93Median $84Low $72

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

What Wall Street says9 analysts
5 Buy4 Hold0 Sell
Low $72Median $84High $93

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +14.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
31 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$86 → $88
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$82 → $93
10 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocDowngradeNeutral—
28 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
24 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
20 Apr 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—
16 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
13 Apr 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
4 Mar 2026Truist SecuritiesInitiatesBuy—
3 Feb 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
23 Jan 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
16 Jan 2026B of A SecuritiesDowngradeNeutral—
7 Jan 2026CitizensInitiatesMarket Outperform—
6 Jan 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
4 Dec 2025Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
4 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
30 Oct 2025Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
30 Oct 2025UBSMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MTH appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Estimates

MTH analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−1.2%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
6
Fundamentals

Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.3×

Cheaper than 47% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.9×

Cheaper than 73% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 75% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
13.6×

Cheaper than 27% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−13.8%

Higher than 13% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−38.3%

Higher than 13% of US stocks

Gross margin
18.4%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Operating margin
8.2%

Higher than 60% of US stocks

Net margin
6.1%

Higher than 62% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
6.4%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Return on assets
3.3%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.6%

Higher than 58% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Peers

MTH vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelResidential Construction
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MTHMeritage Homes Corp.$4.8B
29
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.$4.7B
42
SKYChampion Homes, Inc.$5.3B
72
MHOM/I Homes, Inc.$4.0B
41
IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.$6.6B
74
TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corp.$6.8B
—
KBHKB Home$3.6B
46

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Meritage Homes Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MTH news & analysis

Meritage Homes Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 31 July 2026neutral

Meritage Homes reported lower second-quarter sales, revenue and earnings due to affordability pressures and economic uncertainty, though management noted stable demand sequentially, improved construction costs, and maintained its full-year community growth outlook while raising 2026 expectations.

Why it matters — This update matters to MTH watchers because it shows how current housing-market headwinds are affecting near-term results even as the company signals confidence in its longer-term growth trajectory.

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 30 July 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published the transcript of Meritage Homes Corporation's Q2 2026 earnings call.

Why it matters — Earnings call transcripts provide detailed insight into the company's quarterly financial performance and management's outlook.

Compared to Estimates, Meritage (MTH) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Zacks Investment Research · 30 July 2026neutral

The article discusses Meritage Homes' (MTH) Q2 2026 earnings report and how its revenue and EPS, along with other key metrics, compare with Wall Street estimates and the prior-year figures.

Why it matters — An MTH watcher would care because the comparison of key metrics against estimates and year-ago numbers offers a detailed look at how the company performed relative to expectations and historical results.

Meritage Homes (MTH) Surpasses Q2 Earnings Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 29 July 2026positive

Meritage Homes reported Q2 earnings of $1.42 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.30 per share, though down from $2.04 per share in the same quarter last year.

Why it matters — The earnings beat indicates the company performed better than analysts expected for the quarter, which could influence market perception of MTH's near-term financial health.

Meritage Homes reports second quarter 2026 results

GlobeNewsWire · 29 July 2026neutral

Meritage Homes Corporation reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, for the period ended June 30, 2026.

Why it matters — As the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, Meritage Homes' quarterly results provide insight into the company's financial performance and the broader housing market.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MTH stock

What is the MTH stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $84, with estimates ranging from $72 to $93. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MTH stock a buy right now?

Of the 9 analysts covering Meritage Homes Corp., 5 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 29 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 13 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MTH?

As at 13 Aug 2026, Meritage Homes Corp. ranks 29 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (80 of 100).

Will MTH stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +14.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Meritage Homes Corp. 29 out of 100 as at 13 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MTH stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Meritage Homes Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MTH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $72 to $93 over the next 12 months.

How has MTH stock performed over the past year?

Meritage Homes Corp. returned -2.6% over the 12 months to 14 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Meritage Homes Corp. do?

Meritage Homes Corporation is a leading real estate development company primarily focused on designing and building single-family homes across the United States. Known for its commitment to energy-efficient building practices, the company offers residential properties that meet ENERGY STAR standards, appealing to environmentally conscious buyers.

What is the latest news on MTH?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 31 July 2026): "Meritage Homes Q2 Earnings Call Highlights". Meritage Homes reported lower second-quarter sales, revenue and earnings due to affordability pressures and economic uncertainty, though management noted stable demand sequentially, improved construction costs, and maintained its full-year community growth outlook while raising 2026 expectations.

Company

About Meritage Homes Corp.

Meritage Homes Corporation is a leading real estate development company primarily focused on designing and building single-family homes across the United States. Known for its commitment to energy-efficient building practices, the company offers residential properties that meet ENERGY STAR standards, appealing to environmentally conscious buyers. Meritage Homes operates in some of the nation’s most dynamic housing markets, including Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, and Florida, leveraging regional demographics and demand for sustainable housing solutions. Established in 1985 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, Meritage Homes has carved a significant niche by emphasizing innovation in homebuilding techniques and sustainable residential solutions. The company's market role is crucial, as it addresses the growing demand for homes amid population growth and urban expansion in key metropolitan areas, contributing to the local economies by providing housing and employment opportunities. Meritage Homes is recognized as a formidable player in the home construction sector for its strategic market presence and sustainable housing initiatives.

CEO Mr. Phillippe Lord · 1,860 employees · United States · https://www.meritagehomes.com