MUSAConsumer Cyclical · Specialty RetailThe 11 Wall Street analysts covering Murphy USA, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $623 — +23.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 97 of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026 — among the strongest tenth. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Murphy USA, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (98): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (56): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (16): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MUSA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +23.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 8 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $612 → $621 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $633 → $626 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 15 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $619 → $612 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $655 → $633 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 20 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $520 → $570 |
| 20 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 10 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $600 → $625 |
| 10 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Neutral | $380 → $550 |
| 6 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Neutral | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Buy | $550 → $625 |
| 1 July 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 12 June 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight | $600 → $680 |
| 12 June 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $450 → $520 |
| 1 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 30 Apr 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $510 → $517 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
MUSA appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Murphy USA, Inc. returned +37.9% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 47% of US stocks
Cheaper than 83% of US stocks
Cheaper than 7% of US stocks
Cheaper than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US stocks
Higher than 10% of US stocks
Higher than 53% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Murphy USA, Inc. has a market value of $9.2B and an enterprise value of $11.9B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $21.5B. The latest quarter grew 39.3% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $617.2M, a 2.9% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $32.84.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $541.5M.
Murphy USA, Inc. spent $438.9M on share buybacks and $45.4M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.4×; forward P/E: 16.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.51%, paying out 7% of earnings.
Murphy USA, Inc. employs 5,900 people — $3.6M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Murphy USA, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Motley Fool highlighted that Murphy USA has 55 store locations under construction and that regular unleaded gasoline sales rose almost 2.5% in the quarter.
Why it matters — These figures offer MUSA watchers a snapshot of the company’s store-development pipeline and recent regular-gasoline sales.
Murphy USA said it remains on track to open roughly 45 to 50 stores this year. CEO Mindy West said the company has a development pipeline intended to support annual openings of about 50 locations in subsequent years.
Why it matters — The update gives MUSA watchers insight into the company’s near-term store-opening plan and its pipeline for future expansion.
Murphy USA held its Q3 2026 earnings call on October 29, 2026, with CEO Mindy West and Vice President of Investor Relations & FP&A Christian Pikul participating. The excerpt lists conference-call participants but provides no discussion of results or outlook.
Why it matters — The excerpt identifies the call and its participants, but contains no substantive earnings details for MUSA watchers to assess.
Murphy USA reported strong Q3 earnings, with fuel margins at 37 cents per gallon, volumes outperforming structural headwinds, and merchandise sales stable despite difficult nicotine comparisons. The excerpt also notes disciplined expenses, a robust balance sheet, and continued share repurchases.
Why it matters — Fuel margins, consumer demand, and merchandise trends are key factors behind the quarter’s performance and the company’s shareholder-return activity.
Zacks Investment Research notes that Murphy USA’s Q3 results for the quarter ended September 2026 can be assessed by comparing key metrics with Wall Street estimates and year-ago values. The excerpt provides no specific metric results.
Why it matters — These comparisons offer context for evaluating MUSA’s quarterly performance beyond its headline revenue and earnings figures.
The 11 Wall Street analysts covering Murphy USA, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $623, with estimates ranging from $562 to $680. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 11 analysts covering Murphy USA, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Murphy USA, Inc. 97 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 3 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 3 Nov 2026, Murphy USA, Inc. ranks 97 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 11 analysts implies +23.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Murphy USA, Inc. 97 out of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Murphy USA, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MUSA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $562 to $680 over the next 12 months.
Murphy USA, Inc. returned +37.9% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Murphy USA Inc. is a retail motor fuel and convenience merchandise company that operates a large network of fuel-centered stores across the United States.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 1 Nov 2026): "Murphy USA: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors". The Motley Fool highlighted that Murphy USA has 55 store locations under construction and that regular unleaded gasoline sales rose almost 2.5% in the quarter.
Murphy USA Inc. is a retail motor fuel and convenience merchandise company that operates a large network of fuel-centered stores across the United States. The company sells gasoline, diesel, and related products, while also offering snacks, beverages, tobacco, and other everyday convenience items through its Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek banners. Its business model focuses on high-volume, value-oriented retail locations, with many stores positioned near Walmart Supercenters and other convenient consumer traffic areas. Murphy USA also operates non-fuel convenience stores and supports its retail operations with product supply, distribution terminals, and wholesale fuel marketing. Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, Murphy USA plays a significant role in the U.S. convenience retail and gasoline distribution market by serving daily consumer travel and routine household purchasing needs.
CEO Ms. Malynda K. West CPA · 5,900 employees · United States · https://www.murphyusa.com
