TICKERNERD
Menu
TSCOTSCOConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

TSCO Stock Forecast: Tractor Supply Co. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 3 Aug 2026
$32
+4.35% on the day

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +9.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 25 of 100 as at 1 Aug 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$16.1B
Ticker Nerd rank
25 / 100
Median analyst target
$35
Analysts covering
30
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.0%
1M
+1.1%
YTD
−35.0%
1Y
−43.2%
From 52W high
−47.9%
From 52W low
+10.2%
$29
$62
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TSCO stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Tractor Supply Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 1 Aug 2026
25 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
95
Value
77
Quality
67
Issuance
45
Growth
41
Revisions
30
Accruals
26
Size
11
Momentum
9

Volatility (95): The share price has been relatively steady.

Momentum (9): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Tractor Supply Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership.

Wall Street

TSCO stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TSCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TSCOHigh $46Median $35Low $28

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

What Wall Street says30 analysts
15 Buy15 Hold0 Sell
Low $28Median $35High $46

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +9.0% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 13 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
28 July 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
25 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
24 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$43 → $38
24 July 2026GuggenheimMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
24 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$32 → $28
24 July 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral$32 → $31
24 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$40 → $38
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform—
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform$50 → $38
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$48 → $40
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$47 → $35
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$44 → $35
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$52 → $40
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$44 → $33
9 July 2026MizuhoDowngradeNeutral$50 → $32

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Estimates

TSCO analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−10.6%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.0×

Cheaper than 45% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.0×

Cheaper than 69% of US stocks

Price / book
6.1×

Cheaper than 17% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
11.6×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.3%

Higher than 35% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−16.1%

Higher than 22% of US stocks

Gross margin
36.2%

Higher than 46% of US stocks

Operating margin
12.1%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Net margin
6.4%

Higher than 63% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
39.5%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Return on assets
7.8%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.1%

Higher than 66% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Peers

TSCO vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSpecialty Retail
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TSCOTractor Supply Co.$16.1B
25
DKSDick's Sporting Goods, Inc.$17.6B
33
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.$18.0B
94
FIVEFive Below, Inc.$12.0B
70
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$22.4B
52
MUSAMurphy USA, Inc.$11.2B
95
WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.$26.9B
76
Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TSCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

News

Latest TSCO news & analysis

Tractor Supply: Low Valuation, Self-Help Initiatives, And Temporary Headwinds Create An Opportunity

Seeking Alpha · 3 Aug 2026positive

Seeking Alpha rates Tractor Supply Company a 'Buy,' arguing the current valuation reflects excessive pessimism over temporary macro headwinds on discretionary sales. The note cites resilient demand in the C.U.E. category (40-45% of revenue) and self-help initiatives including Project Fusion, localization, and Final Mile delivery expected to drive comp sales and earnings growth from FY27.

Why it matters — A TSCO watcher would care because the piece frames near-term sales pressure as temporary and highlights company-driven growth initiatives tied to future comp and earnings performance.

Major pet store closing 75 locations nationwide, slowing expansion

Fox Business · 27 July 2026neutral

Tractor Supply plans to close 75 underperforming Petsense locations, as CEO Hal Lawton said those stores had negative four-wall cash flow.

Why it matters — The closures signal a pullback in Tractor Supply's pet-store expansion strategy and suggest management is focused on cutting underperforming assets.

Why Dividend Investing Often Wins

Seeking Alpha · 24 July 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published a general article arguing that dividend-growth stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over 50 years, with lower volatility and behavioral benefits for investors.

Why it matters — As Tractor Supply is a dividend-paying company, the article's case for dividend-growth investing may reinforce confidence in TSCO's investment profile for income-focused shareholders.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TSCO stock

What is the TSCO stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $28 to $46. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Of the 30 analysts covering Tractor Supply Co., 15 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 25 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 1 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TSCO?

As at 1 Aug 2026, Tractor Supply Co. ranks 25 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (95 of 100).

Will TSCO stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 30 analysts implies +9.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 25 out of 100 as at 1 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TSCO stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Tractor Supply Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TSCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $28 to $46 over the next 12 months.

How has TSCO stock performed over the past year?

Tractor Supply Co. returned -43.2% over the 12 months to 3 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Tractor Supply Co. do?

Tractor Supply Company is a specialty retail company focused on the rural lifestyle market in the United States. The company operates a large network of Tractor Supply stores and Petsense by Tractor Supply locations, serving recreational farmers, ranchers, pet owners, homeowners, and landowners primarily in rural and semi-rural communities.

What is the latest news on TSCO?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 3 Aug 2026): "Tractor Supply: Low Valuation, Self-Help Initiatives, And Temporary Headwinds Create An Opportunity". Seeking Alpha rates Tractor Supply Company a 'Buy,' arguing the current valuation reflects excessive pessimism over temporary macro headwinds on discretionary sales. The note cites resilient demand in the C.U.E. category (40-45% of revenue) and self-help initiatives including Project Fusion, localization, and Final Mile delivery expected to drive comp sales and earnings growth from FY27.

Company

About Tractor Supply Co.

Tractor Supply Company is a specialty retail company focused on the rural lifestyle market in the United States. The company operates a large network of Tractor Supply stores and Petsense by Tractor Supply locations, serving recreational farmers, ranchers, pet owners, homeowners, and landowners primarily in rural and semi-rural communities. Its product assortment spans livestock, equine and agricultural supplies, companion animal food and care, seasonal and recreational merchandise, hardware, tools, workwear, and home and garden products. Tractor Supply Company positions itself as a one-stop destination for lifestyle needs related to land, animals, and outdoor living, emphasizing convenient store formats, extensive assortments, and knowledge-based customer service. Headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, it plays a significant role in the U.S. consumer cyclical and specialty retail sectors by catering to a customer base that is less served by traditional urban-focused retailers and by addressing everyday needs of rural households, small farms, and hobby operations.

CEO Mr. Harry A. Lawton III · 54,000 employees · United States · https://www.tractorsupply.com