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TSCOTSCOConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

TSCO Stock Forecast: Tractor Supply Co. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$32
−1.86% on the day

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +8.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 22 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$16.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
22 / 100
Median analyst target
$35
Analysts covering
30
Revenue$4.5B+2.3% y/y
Operating income$529.9M
Net income$360.7M
Free cash flow$328.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.4%
1M
−6.6%
YTD
−34.4%
1Y
−44.9%
From 52W high
−44.9%
From 52W low
+11.3%
$29
$59
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TSCO stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Tractor Supply Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
22 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
90
Value
60
Quality
60
Issuance
48
Growth
40
Revisions
35
Accruals
27
Size
11
Momentum
11

Volatility (90): The share price has been relatively steady.

Momentum (11): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TSCO stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TSCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TSCOHigh $42Median $35Low $28

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says30 analysts
15 Buy15 Hold0 Sell
Low $28Median $35High $42

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +8.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 13 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
28 July 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
25 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
24 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$43 → $38
24 July 2026GuggenheimMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
24 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$32 → $28
24 July 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral$32 → $31
24 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$40 → $38
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform—
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform$50 → $38
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$48 → $40
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$47 → $35
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$44 → $35
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$52 → $40
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$44 → $33
9 July 2026MizuhoDowngradeNeutral$50 → $32

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TSCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TSCO vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Tractor Supply Co. returned −44.9% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TSCO vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
406080100120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TSCOS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TSCO analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−12.0%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
12
Fundamentals

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.8×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.1×

Cheaper than 68% of US stocks

Price / book
6.4×

Cheaper than 16% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
12.0×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.3%

Higher than 32% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−16.1%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Gross margin
37.1%

Higher than 45% of US stocks

Operating margin
12.1%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Net margin
6.4%

Higher than 63% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
39.5%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Return on assets
7.8%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.0%

Higher than 63% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Tractor Supply Co. has a market value of $16.8B and an enterprise value of $23.1B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $15.8B. The latest quarter grew 2.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.0B, a 6.4% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.92.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $307.0M, after $978.8M of capital spending.

  • Tractor Supply Co. spent $460.7M on share buybacks and $495.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 521.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 16.8×; forward P/E: 15.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.98%, paying out 49% of earnings.

  • Tractor Supply Co. employs 54,000 people — $292K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 20 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TSCO vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSpecialty Retail
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TSCOTractor Supply Co.$16.8B
22
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.$19.4B
97
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.$22.1B
88
FIVEFive Below, Inc.$12.9B
78
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$23.7B
59
GMEGameStop Corp.$11.4B
55
WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.$26.4B
77

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Tractor Supply Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TSCO news & analysis

15 stocks that have grown dividends the most — and nearly all have beaten the S&P 500

Market Watch · 16 Sept 2026neutral

MarketWatch reports on 15 stocks that have grown their dividends the most, noting that nearly all of them have beaten the S&P 500. The article highlights a correlation between rising dividends and strong investment performance, even for stocks bought at low dividend yields.

Why it matters — TSCO watchers would care because dividend growth has been linked to outperformance, making such lists relevant context for evaluating Tractor Supply's dividend track record against peers.

Petsense by Tractor Supply Launches Round-Up Campaign to Support K9s for Warriors

Business Wire · 16 Sept 2026positive

Petsense by Tractor Supply, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tractor Supply Company, is launching a round-up campaign through Veterans Day, Nov. 11, allowing customers to round up purchases at checkout to benefit K9s For Warriors, a provider of trained service dogs for veterans living with PTSD and other invisible wounds of war.

Why it matters — A TSCO watcher would care because this charitable initiative highlights the company's community engagement and supports its customer-facing brand image.

Tractor Supply and Starlink Turn Rural Connectivity Into Support for 4-H Youth

Business Wire · 15 Sept 2026positive

Tractor Supply Company, 4-H, and Starlink announced the next phase of their initiative to bridge the digital divide in rural communities. Through November 15, when customers activate an eligible Starlink kit purchased at Tractor Supply, Starlink will donate the value of the customer's first month of subscription service.

Why it matters — The partnership ties Tractor Supply's brand to rural connectivity and youth development (4-H), which could strengthen customer loyalty and differentiate the retailer in its core market.

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Presents at Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 9 Sept 2026neutral

Tractor Supply Company presented at the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference, with a transcript of the presentation published on Seeking Alpha. The item notes the company's participation in the investor conference but provides no details of the discussion.

Why it matters — A TSCO watcher would care because presentations at major investor conferences can offer insights into the company's strategy and outlook, though this item only flags the event.

Tractor Supply Celebrates Local Farmers, Makers and Artisans With Harvest Fest

Business Wire · 9 Sept 2026positive

Tractor Supply Company announced its nationwide Harvest Fest, scheduled for Saturday, Sept. 12, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. local time. Participating stores will host local farmers, makers, bakers and artisans in a farmers market-style event for their communities.

Why it matters — The event highlights Tractor Supply's community engagement and its role as a rural lifestyle retailer connecting with local customers.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TSCO stock

What is the TSCO stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $28 to $42. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Of the 30 analysts covering Tractor Supply Co., 15 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 22 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TSCO?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Tractor Supply Co. ranks 22 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (90 of 100).

Will TSCO stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 30 analysts implies +8.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 22 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TSCO stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Tractor Supply Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TSCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $28 to $42 over the next 12 months.

How has TSCO stock performed over the past year?

Tractor Supply Co. returned -44.9% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Tractor Supply Co. do?

Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care.

What is the latest news on TSCO?

The most recent item we track (Market Watch, 16 Sept 2026): "15 stocks that have grown dividends the most — and nearly all have beaten the S&P 500". MarketWatch reports on 15 stocks that have grown their dividends the most, noting that nearly all of them have beaten the S&P 500. The article highlights a correlation between rising dividends and strong investment performance, even for stocks bought at low dividend yields.

Company

About Tractor Supply Co.

Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care. Its business is focused on communities in rural areas and small towns, where it provides practical supplies and everyday essentials tied to farm, ranch, and country living. Tractor Supply Company also supports customers through mobile and online shopping, extending its reach across its core markets while remaining centered on the needs of Life Out Here.

CEO Mr. Harry A. Lawton III · 54,000 employees · United States · https://www.tractorsupply.com