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TSCOTSCOConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

TSCO Stock Forecast: Tractor Supply Co. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 4 Sept 2026
$35
+1.13% on the day

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +0.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 23 of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile.

Market cap
$18.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
23 / 100
Median analyst target
$35
Analysts covering
30
Revenue$4.5B+2.3% y/y
Operating income$529.9M
Net income$360.7M
Free cash flow$328.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.8%
1M
+6.4%
YTD
−28.7%
1Y
−40.9%
From 52W high
−40.9%
From 52W low
+20.9%
$29
$59
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TSCO stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Tractor Supply Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 5 Sept 2026
23 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
90
Value
65
Quality
62
Issuance
47
Growth
39
Revisions
35
Accruals
27
Size
11
Momentum
10

Volatility (90): The share price has been relatively steady.

Momentum (10): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TSCO stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TSCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TSCOHigh $46Median $35Low $28

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says30 analysts
15 Buy15 Hold0 Sell
Low $28Median $35High $46

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +0.0% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 13 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
28 July 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
25 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
24 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$43 → $38
24 July 2026GuggenheimMaintainsBuy$50 → $40
24 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$32 → $28
24 July 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral$32 → $31
24 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$40 → $38
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform—
20 July 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform$50 → $38
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
17 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$48 → $40
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
15 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$47 → $35
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
14 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$44 → $35
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform—
14 July 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainsOutperform$52 → $40
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
14 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$44 → $33
9 July 2026MizuhoDowngradeNeutral$50 → $32

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TSCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TSCO vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 4 Sept 2026, Tractor Supply Co. returned −40.9% against +20.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TSCO vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
406080100120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TSCOS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TSCO analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−12.0%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
12
Fundamentals

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
18.2×

Cheaper than 41% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.2×

Cheaper than 67% of US stocks

Price / book
7.0×

Cheaper than 15% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
12.7×

Cheaper than 29% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.3%

Higher than 33% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−16.1%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Gross margin
37.1%

Higher than 46% of US stocks

Operating margin
12.1%

Higher than 68% of US stocks

Net margin
6.4%

Higher than 63% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
39.5%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Return on assets
7.8%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.7%

Higher than 60% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Tractor Supply Co. has a market value of $18.2B and an enterprise value of $24.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $15.8B. The latest quarter grew 2.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.0B, a 6.4% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.92.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $307.0M, after $978.8M of capital spending.

  • Tractor Supply Co. spent $460.7M on share buybacks and $495.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 521.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 18.2×; forward P/E: 17.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.74%, paying out 49% of earnings.

  • Tractor Supply Co. employs 54,000 people — $292K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 8 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TSCO vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSpecialty Retail
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TSCOTractor Supply Co.$18.2B
23
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.$18.9B
97
FIVEFive Below, Inc.$13.9B
76
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$24.7B
61
WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.$26.8B
76
DKSDick's Sporting Goods, Inc.$12.5B
18
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.$28.0B
95

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Tractor Supply Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TSCO news & analysis

Tractor Supply Recognizes 2026 Top Vendor Partners During Annual Partnership Conference

Business Wire · 3 Sept 2026positive

Tractor Supply Company recognized its top vendor partners for 2026 during its annual Partnership Conference, held September 1-3 in Nashville, Tennessee. Honorees were selected based on their commitment to innovation, collaboration, service, and delivering quality products and value for Tractor Supply customers.

Why it matters — The recognition highlights Tractor Supply's ongoing collaboration with vendor partners, which supports its ability to deliver quality products and value to customers.

Tractor Supply Names Next Class of FFA Future Leaders, Launches Fundraiser for Largest Agriculture Scholarship of Its Kind

Business Wire · 2 Sept 2026positive

Tractor Supply Company and the Tractor Supply Company Foundation announced 146 recipients of the 2026 FFA Future Leaders Scholarship, representing students from 32 states pursuing careers such as agribusiness and agricultural engineering. The company also launched a fundraiser for what it describes as the largest agriculture scholarship of its kind.

Why it matters — This initiative highlights Tractor Supply's community engagement and commitment to supporting the next generation of rural and agricultural leaders, reinforcing its brand among its core customer base.

Tractor Supply to Participate in Barclays 2026 Global Consumer Staples Conference

Business Wire · 26 Aug 2026neutral

Tractor Supply Company announced it will participate in the Barclays 2026 Global Consumer Staples Conference on September 9, 2026. The announcement was made from the company's headquarters in Brentwood, Tennessee via Business Wire.

Why it matters — A TSCO watcher would care because company participation at a major industry conference signals an opportunity for investors and analysts to hear directly from Tractor Supply's leadership.

Instacart and Petsense by Tractor Supply Launch Exclusive Same-Day Delivery Partnership

PRNewsWire · 25 Aug 2026positive

Instacart and Petsense by Tractor Supply, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tractor Supply Company, announced a new partnership making Instacart the exclusive same-day delivery partner for Petsense. The service offers pet lovers delivery in as fast as an hour with no markups nationwide.

Why it matters — This partnership expands Petsense's e-commerce and delivery capabilities, potentially strengthening Tractor Supply's overall retail offering for its subsidiary.

Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week August 16

Seeking Alpha · 14 Aug 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published a weekly roundup of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, noting companies that changed their dividends and upcoming ex-dividend dates.

Why it matters — TSCO watchers would care because Tractor Supply Co. is included among dividend contenders or challengers, and any changes in its dividend status would be reflected in this roundup.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TSCO stock

What is the TSCO stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $28 to $46. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Of the 30 analysts covering Tractor Supply Co., 15 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 23 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TSCO?

As at 5 Sept 2026, Tractor Supply Co. ranks 23 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (90 of 100).

Will TSCO stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 30 analysts implies +0.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 23 out of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TSCO stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Tractor Supply Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TSCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $28 to $46 over the next 12 months.

How has TSCO stock performed over the past year?

Tractor Supply Co. returned -40.9% over the 12 months to 4 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Tractor Supply Co. do?

Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care.

What is the latest news on TSCO?

The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 3 Sept 2026): "Tractor Supply Recognizes 2026 Top Vendor Partners During Annual Partnership Conference". Tractor Supply Company recognized its top vendor partners for 2026 during its annual Partnership Conference, held September 1-3 in Nashville, Tennessee. Honorees were selected based on their commitment to innovation, collaboration, service, and delivering quality products and value for Tractor Supply customers.

Company

About Tractor Supply Co.

Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care. Its business is focused on communities in rural areas and small towns, where it provides practical supplies and everyday essentials tied to farm, ranch, and country living. Tractor Supply Company also supports customers through mobile and online shopping, extending its reach across its core markets while remaining centered on the needs of Life Out Here.

CEO Mr. Harry A. Lawton III · 54,000 employees · United States · https://www.tractorsupply.com