TSCOConsumer Cyclical · Specialty RetailThe 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +6.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 24 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Tractor Supply Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (84): The share price has been relatively steady.
Momentum (18): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (11): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TSCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +6.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 12 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $37 → $38 |
| 28 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $50 → $40 |
| 25 July 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | $43 → $38 |
| 24 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $50 → $40 |
| 24 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $32 → $28 |
| 24 July 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | $32 → $31 |
| 24 July 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $40 → $38 |
| 20 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 20 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | $50 → $38 |
| 17 July 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $48 → $40 |
| 17 July 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 15 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $47 → $35 |
| 15 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $44 → $35 |
| 14 July 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 14 July 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $52 → $40 |
| 14 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $44 → $33 |
| 14 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TSCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Tractor Supply Co. returned −39.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 41% of US stocks
Cheaper than 66% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Cheaper than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 32% of US stocks
Higher than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 45% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Tractor Supply Co. has a market value of $17.6B and an enterprise value of $23.9B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $15.8B. The latest quarter grew 2.3% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.0B, a 6.4% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.92.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $307.0M, after $978.8M of capital spending.
Tractor Supply Co. spent $460.7M on share buybacks and $495.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 17.5×; forward P/E: 16.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.85%, paying out 49% of earnings.
Tractor Supply Co. employs 54,000 people — $292K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Tractor Supply Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research highlights gains by HF Sinclair, Accenture and FirstCash, describing them as standout performers in its research portfolios amid market uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.
Why it matters — The item does not discuss Tractor Supply, but offers broader market context that may be relevant to TSCO watchers.
Tesco shares rose to 516p last week, their highest level since June, after the company reported strong financial results. The share price was up 25% from its lowest level this year.
Why it matters — The item concerns Tesco rather than Tractor Supply Co., so it provides no direct company-specific update for a TSCO watcher.
Seeking Alpha’s October 2026 screen tracks 50 high-quality dividend-growth stocks for entry points based on valuation and future return potential. Applied Materials, D.R. Horton, and Home Depot improved in the rankings; 44 stocks had forward return estimates of at least 10%, and 32 appeared potentially undervalued based on free-cash-flow mean reversion.
Why it matters — The excerpt describes a broad dividend-growth stock screen but does not mention Tractor Supply, so it provides no company-specific update for TSCO watchers.
Tractor Supply Company said it intends to release its third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, October 22, 2026. The announcement concerns the webcast of its third-quarter earnings conference call.
Why it matters — TSCO watchers can note the planned timing of the company’s third-quarter results and conference call.
Tractor Supply is launching its 2026 Holiday Gift Guide, featuring practical gifts, trusted brands and unexpected finds across a range of budgets, from stocking stuffers under $10 to larger items.
Why it matters — The guide highlights TSCO’s holiday-season merchandise assortment and value-focused gift options for shoppers.
The 30 Wall Street analysts covering Tractor Supply Co. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $28 to $42. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 30 analysts covering Tractor Supply Co., 15 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 24 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, Tractor Supply Co. ranks 24 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (84 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 30 analysts implies +6.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Tractor Supply Co. 24 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Tractor Supply Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TSCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $28 to $42 over the next 12 months.
Tractor Supply Co. returned -39.6% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 12 Oct 2026): "Take the Zacks Approach to Beat the Markets: HF Sinclair, Accenture & FirstCash in Focus". Zacks Investment Research highlights gains by HF Sinclair, Accenture and FirstCash, describing them as standout performers in its research portfolios amid market uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.
Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners, pet owners, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise through its Tractor Supply and Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, as well as digital channels, including products for livestock, equine, agriculture, companion animals, seasonal living, truck and tool needs, hardware, clothing, and home and garden care. Its business is focused on communities in rural areas and small towns, where it provides practical supplies and everyday essentials tied to farm, ranch, and country living. Tractor Supply Company also supports customers through mobile and online shopping, extending its reach across its core markets while remaining centered on the needs of Life Out Here.
CEO Mr. Harry A. Lawton III · 54,000 employees · United States · https://www.tractorsupply.com
