TOLConsumer Cyclical · Residential ConstructionThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $175 — +19.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 58 of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Toll Brothers, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (95): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Growth (31): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TOL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +19.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $176 → $179 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $185 → $191 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $165 → $170 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $187 → $195 |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $115 → $122 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | $146 → $176 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 11 June 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 9 June 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 21 May 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 7 Apr 2026 | Seaport Global | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TOL appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Cheaper than 64% of US stocks
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Cheaper than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 18% of US stocks
Higher than 27% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Toll Brothers, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Toll Brothers reported third-quarter financial results that were better than expected, announced after the closing bell on Tuesday. In response, analysts raised their forecasts for the company.
Why it matters — Better-than-expected results and upward analyst revisions are relevant signals for those tracking Toll Brothers' recent performance and outlook.
Toll Brothers announced that a new model home, the Hosmer Farmhouse, is now open at its Quail Ridge community in Ridgefield, Washington. The model showcases luxurious features and a spacious design.
Why it matters — This highlights Toll Brothers' ongoing expansion and new-home sales activity in the Pacific Northwest market.
The US Treasury Department announced on August 19 that it will at least double its liquidity-support buybacks for 10-year to 30-year debt, a surprise mid-cycle move by Secretary Scott Bessent. The announcement came as outstanding public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time.
Why it matters — A Treasury watcher of Toll Brothers would care because changes in long-dated Treasury buybacks can influence mortgage rates and housing demand.
Toll Brothers held its Q3 2026 earnings call, with a transcript of the discussion published by Seeking Alpha. The call covered the company's quarterly financial results and management commentary.
Why it matters — The earnings call transcript provides TOL watchers with direct insight into the company's latest quarterly performance and management's outlook.
Toll Brothers reported Q3 earnings and revenue that beat estimates, driven by higher home prices which offset a decline in deliveries. Orders grew despite ongoing margin pressure.
Why it matters — A TOL watcher would care because the earnings beat and order growth signal demand resilience even as higher pricing and margin pressure shape the company's results.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $175, with estimates ranging from $122 to $195. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc., 13 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 58 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Aug 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. ranks 58 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (95 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies +19.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 58 out of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Toll Brothers, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TOL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $122 to $195 over the next 12 months.
Toll Brothers, Inc. returned +12.6% over the 12 months to 21 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Toll Brothers Inc. is a luxury residential homebuilder operating across more than 60 markets in 24 states nationwide.
The most recent item we track (Benzinga, 20 Aug 2026): "Toll Brothers Analysts Boost Their Forecasts After Better-Than-Expected Q3 Results". Toll Brothers reported third-quarter financial results that were better than expected, announced after the closing bell on Tuesday. In response, analysts raised their forecasts for the company.
Toll Brothers Inc. is a luxury residential homebuilder operating across more than 60 markets in 24 states nationwide. The company specializes in designing, building, marketing, and arranging financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities. Toll Brothers serves diverse buyer demographics, including first-time homebuyers, move-up purchasers, empty-nesters, active-adult communities, second-home buyers, and urban and suburban renters. The company operates through five geographical segments: North Region, Mid-Atlantic Region, South Region, Mountain Region, and Pacific Region. In recent years, Toll Brothers has expanded its portfolio to include a greater mix of speculative or quick move-in homes and has broadened its price points with increased emphasis on affordable luxury offerings. Beyond traditional homebuilding, the company provides ancillary services including mortgage financing, title services, and insurance. Headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, and founded in 1967, Toll Brothers remains a prominent player in the residential construction sector, recognized for its commitment to quality and customer service.
CEO Mr. Karl K. Mistry · 4,900 employees · United States · https://www.tollbrothers.com