TOLConsumer Cyclical · Residential ConstructionThe 20 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $175 — +30.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 56 of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Toll Brothers, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (96): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Growth (31): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TOL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +30.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $122 → $118 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Melius Research | Initiates | Buy | $179 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Initiates | Overweight | $159 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $191 → $184 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | $161 → $170 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $176 → $179 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $185 → $191 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $165 → $170 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $187 → $195 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $115 → $122 |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | $146 → $176 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 11 June 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TOL appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 16 Oct 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. returned +0.3% against +16.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 56% of US stocks
Cheaper than 65% of US stocks
Cheaper than 54% of US stocks
Cheaper than 43% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 68% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Toll Brothers, Inc. has a market value of $12.3B and an enterprise value of $14.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $10.8B. The latest quarter shrank 9.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 11.1% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.46.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $1.1B.
Toll Brothers, Inc. spent $681.6M on share buybacks and $97.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.
Trailing P/E: 10.7×; forward P/E: 9.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.78%, paying out 8% of earnings.
Toll Brothers, Inc. employs 4,900 people — $2.2M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Toll Brothers, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Toll Brothers announced the opening of a new phase in its Cottage and Preserve collections at Griffith Lakes, a resort-style community in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Why it matters — The announcement provides an update on Toll Brothers’ luxury home offerings and community development in the Charlotte market.
Toll Brothers announced that its Everly community has opened in Spartanburg, South Carolina. The luxury home community offers modern home designs and amenities.
Why it matters — The opening adds a newly available Toll Brothers community in Spartanburg to the company's residential offerings.
Toll Brothers announced Toll Brothers at Cypress Reserve, a new lakefront luxury home community coming soon to Clermont, Florida. The community is described as offering lakeside living and resort-inspired amenities.
Why it matters — The announcement highlights a new Toll Brothers community and its planned offerings in Clermont, Florida.
Toll Brothers announced Magnolia Green, a new luxury-home community coming soon to the intersection of Murfreesboro Road (Hwy. 96) and Ralston Lane in Franklin, Tennessee. Construction of the Sales Center and model home is anticipated to begin in early 2027, with sales expected to start shortly afterward.
Why it matters — The announcement adds a planned Nashville-area community to Toll Brothers’ development pipeline, with construction and sales milestones expected to begin in 2027.
The excerpt highlights portfolio companies’ operating results: Microsoft’s operating income and revenue growth, Meta’s AI product launches receiving a positive market response, and Apple’s revenue and gross-margin-dollar growth amid input pricing pressures.
Why it matters — The excerpt does not discuss Toll Brothers or the homebuilding industry, so it offers no direct company-specific context for TOL watchers.
The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $175, with estimates ranging from $118 to $195. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 20 analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc., 15 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 56 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Oct 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. ranks 56 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (96 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 20 analysts implies +30.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 56 out of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Toll Brothers, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TOL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $118 to $195 over the next 12 months.
Toll Brothers, Inc. returned +0.3% over the 12 months to 16 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, markets, and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities across the United States.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 16 Oct 2026): "Toll Brothers Announces New Phase Opening in Cottage and Preserve Collections at Griffith Lakes in North Carolina". Toll Brothers announced the opening of a new phase in its Cottage and Preserve collections at Griffith Lakes, a resort-style community in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, markets, and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities across the United States. The company focuses on single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and master-planned communities, with offerings that also include urban low-, mid-, and high-rise residences. Toll Brothers serves a broad customer base, including first-time buyers, move-up buyers, active-adult buyers, and second-home buyers. Its business extends beyond core home construction to related services such as land development, mortgage, title, insurance, architecture, engineering, smart home technology, and landscaping. The company plays an important role in the U.S. residential housing market by combining homebuilding with integrated services that support the purchase and delivery of luxury communities.
CEO Mr. Karl K. Mistry · 4,900 employees · United States · https://www.tollbrothers.com
