TOLConsumer Cyclical · Residential ConstructionThe 17 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $175 — +31.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 62 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Toll Brothers, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (95): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Growth (31): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TOL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +31.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | $161 → $170 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $176 → $179 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $185 → $191 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $165 → $170 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $187 → $195 |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | $115 → $122 |
| 14 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | $146 → $176 |
| 10 July 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 11 June 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 9 June 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 21 May 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 21 May 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TOL appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. returned −4.1% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 57% of US stocks
Cheaper than 66% of US stocks
Cheaper than 56% of US stocks
Cheaper than 44% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Toll Brothers, Inc. has a market value of $12.3B and an enterprise value of $14.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $10.8B. The latest quarter shrank 9.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 11.1% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.46.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $1.1B.
Toll Brothers, Inc. spent $681.6M on share buybacks and $97.3M on dividends in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.
Trailing P/E: 10.7×; forward P/E: 9.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.78%, paying out 8% of earnings.
Toll Brothers, Inc. employs 4,900 people — $2.2M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Toll Brothers, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Toll Brothers announced that its new gated community, Summercrest, is now open in Estero, Florida. The development features luxury townhomes situated close to beaches, shopping, and dining.
Why it matters — The opening of a new community in Florida signals continued expansion of Toll Brothers' residential developments in a key market.
Toll Brothers reported earnings 30 days ago, and its stock has fallen 10.7% since that report. The article examines what may be next for the stock following the earnings release.
Why it matters — A TOL watcher would care because the 10.7% decline since earnings signals how the market has reacted to the company's latest results and outlook.
Toll Brothers' Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable on October 23, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 9, 2026.
Why it matters — This announcement signals the company's ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders through regular dividend payments.
Baron Real Estate Fund reported strong second-quarter results, rising 11.89% for its Institutional Shares. The fund highlighted gains in Hyatt Hotels after strong results and an Investor Day, and in AAON following a strong earnings report with faster-than-expected data center growth.
Why it matters — Toll Brothers investors may watch the fund's broader real estate portfolio activity as a signal of sector performance, though Toll Brothers is not specifically mentioned in this item.
Toll Brothers announced the grand opening of a luxury model home at its Enclave community in Corona, California. The new model home is set to debut on Saturday, September 19 at the exclusive community.
Why it matters — The announcement reflects ongoing sales and marketing activity at a new Toll Brothers luxury community, which is relevant to investors tracking the company's homebuilding operations.
The 17 Wall Street analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $175, with estimates ranging from $122 to $195. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 17 analysts covering Toll Brothers, Inc., 12 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 62 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 19 Sept 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. ranks 62 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (95 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 17 analysts implies +31.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Toll Brothers, Inc. 62 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Toll Brothers, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TOL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $122 to $195 over the next 12 months.
Toll Brothers, Inc. returned -4.1% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, markets, and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities across the United States.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 18 Sept 2026): "Summercrest by Toll Brothers Now Open in Estero, Florida". Toll Brothers announced that its new gated community, Summercrest, is now open in Estero, Florida. The development features luxury townhomes situated close to beaches, shopping, and dining.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, markets, and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities across the United States. The company focuses on single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and master-planned communities, with offerings that also include urban low-, mid-, and high-rise residences. Toll Brothers serves a broad customer base, including first-time buyers, move-up buyers, active-adult buyers, and second-home buyers. Its business extends beyond core home construction to related services such as land development, mortgage, title, insurance, architecture, engineering, smart home technology, and landscaping. The company plays an important role in the U.S. residential housing market by combining homebuilding with integrated services that support the purchase and delivery of luxury communities.
CEO Mr. Karl K. Mistry · 4,900 employees · United States · https://www.tollbrothers.com
