NVRConsumer Cyclical · Residential ConstructionThe 7 Wall Street analysts covering NVR, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $6,563 — +10.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 39 of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores NVR, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (99): The share price has been relatively steady.
Momentum (17): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (11): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on NVR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +10.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Initiates | Underweight | $5,058 |
| 25 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Hold | $6,600 → $6,400 |
| 24 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $7,700 → $7,400 |
| 20 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | $7,600 → $7,200 |
| 7 July 2026 | Zelman & Assoc | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 7 July 2026 | Zelman & Assoc | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Apr 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 23 Apr 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 7 Apr 2026 | Seaport Global | Downgrade | Sell | — |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Truist Securities | Initiates | Hold | — |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Zelman & Assoc | Upgrade | Hold | — |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Zelman& Assoc | Upgrade | Hold | — |
| 6 Jan 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 23 Oct 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 10 Oct 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. NVR appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 16 Oct 2026, NVR, Inc. returned −22.2% against +16.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 44% of US stocks
Cheaper than 56% of US stocks
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Cheaper than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 22% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 98% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
NVR, Inc. has a market value of $15.9B and an enterprise value of $15.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $9.5B. The latest quarter shrank 10.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.1B, a 12.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $385.59.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.0B.
NVR, Inc. spent $1.8B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 15.6×; forward P/E: 15.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.01%, paying out 0% of earnings.
NVR, Inc. employs 6,300 people — $1.5M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own NVR, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Home sellers are beginning to reduce prices as competition for buyers heats up. The excerpt says this will push builders such as Lennar and KB Home to increase incentives.
Why it matters — NVR watchers may care because rising competition and builder incentives could affect the market conditions facing homebuilders.
Zacks Equity Research named NVR the Bear of the Day in its October 9, 2026 item, which also named NetApp the Bull of the Day.
Why it matters — NVR watchers may note the negative characterization of the company in Zacks’ daily research feature.
The Motley Fool reports that high mortgage rates are straining home affordability, keeping buyers on the sidelines and leaving homebuilders including NVR struggling. The article notes NVR would benefit if mortgage rates eventually decline.
Why it matters — The report highlights how elevated mortgage rates are pressuring NVR's business conditions, indicating that affordability challenges are currently weighing on the homebuilder alongside market demand.
Zacks Investment Research published an article comparing Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and NVR (NVR) as value stock opportunities in the Building Products - Home Builders sector, posing the question of which currently offers the better value to investors.
Why it matters — An NVR watcher would care because the piece evaluates NVR's relative value position against a peer home builder, which could shape investor perception.
Berkshire Hathaway released its latest portfolio update, which the article highlights as showing increased investment in an AI hyperscaler that is now among its top-three holdings.
Why it matters — NVR watchers may find the news relevant only as a broad market context item, since it concerns Berkshire's holdings and an AI hyperscaler rather than NVR or the homebuilding sector.
The 7 Wall Street analysts covering NVR, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $6,563, with estimates ranging from $5,058 to $7,400. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 7 analysts covering NVR, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks NVR, Inc. 39 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Oct 2026, NVR, Inc. ranks 39 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies +10.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks NVR, Inc. 39 out of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering NVR, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for NVR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $5,058 to $7,400 over the next 12 months.
NVR, Inc. returned -22.2% over the 12 months to 16 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
NVR, Inc. is an American homebuilding and mortgage banking company headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
The most recent item we track (WSJ, 11 Oct 2026): "Home Sellers Are Starting to Blink on Prices. That's Bad for Builders.". Home sellers are beginning to reduce prices as competition for buyers heats up. The excerpt says this will push builders such as Lennar and KB Home to increase incentives.
NVR, Inc. is an American homebuilding and mortgage banking company headquartered in Reston, Virginia. The company operates through two core business segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking. Its homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. NVR, Inc. serves a broad range of buyers, including first-time, move-up, and luxury customers, and supports them with related mortgage, title, and closing services. The company’s integrated model connects home construction with financing and settlement services, giving it a significant role in residential real estate markets across multiple U.S. regions. As one of the nation’s leading homebuilders, NVR, Inc. is a notable participant in the housing industry and the broader financial market.
CEO Mr. Eugene James Bredow · 6,300 employees · United States · https://www.nvrinc.com
