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NVRNVRConsumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

NVR Stock Forecast: NVR, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 6 Oct 2026
$6,047
+1.28% on the day

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering NVR, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $6,700 — +10.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 41 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the lower half.

Market cap
$16.1B
Ticker Nerd rank
41 / 100
Median analyst target
$6,700
Analysts covering
7
Revenue$2.3B−10.5% y/y
Operating income$312.2M
Net income$236.5M
Free cash flow−$157.7M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−3.0%
1M
−4.0%
YTD
−17.1%
1Y
−25.1%
From 52W high
−25.3%
From 52W low
+8.7%
$5,564
$8,097
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

NVR stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores NVR, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 6 Oct 2026
41 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
100
Quality
81
Issuance
80
Revisions
57
Accruals
47
Value
47
Growth
20
Momentum
16
Size
11

Volatility (100): The share price has been relatively steady.

Momentum (16): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Size (11): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

NVR stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on NVR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26NVRHigh $7,400Median $6,700Low $5,058

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says7 analysts
2 Buy3 Hold2 Sell
Low $5,058Median $6,700High $7,400

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +10.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
1 Oct 2026Morgan StanleyInitiatesUnderweight$5,058
25 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
24 July 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
24 July 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$6,600 → $6,400
24 July 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$7,700 → $7,400
20 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
20 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$7,600 → $7,200
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocUpgradeBuy—
7 July 2026Zelman & AssocUpgradeBuy—
23 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
23 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
20 Apr 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
16 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
7 Apr 2026Seaport GlobalDowngradeSell—
4 Mar 2026Truist SecuritiesInitiatesHold—
29 Jan 2026Zelman & AssocUpgradeHold—
29 Jan 2026Zelman& AssocUpgradeHold—
6 Jan 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
23 Oct 2025UBSMaintainsNeutral—
10 Oct 2025B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. NVR appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

NVR vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, NVR, Inc. returned −25.1% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

NVR vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26NVRS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

NVR analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−0.5%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

NVR, Inc. (NVR) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.6×

Cheaper than 44% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.7×

Cheaper than 56% of US stocks

Price / book
4.7×

Cheaper than 21% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
10.4×

Cheaper than 36% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−10.9%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−29.1%

Higher than 17% of US stocks

Gross margin
21.0%

Higher than 22% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.9%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
11.8%

Higher than 73% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
31.5%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Return on assets
16.5%

Higher than 98% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 62% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

NVR, Inc. (NVR) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • NVR, Inc. has a market value of $16.1B and an enterprise value of $16.0B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $9.5B. The latest quarter shrank 10.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.1B, a 12.0% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $385.59.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.0B.

  • NVR, Inc. spent $1.8B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 2.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 15.6×; forward P/E: 15.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.01%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • NVR, Inc. employs 6,300 people — $1.5M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

NVR vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelResidential Construction
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
NVRNVR, Inc.$16.1B
41
LENLennar Corp.$18.9B
21
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.$12.7B
55
PHMPulteGroup, Inc.$22.6B
52
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.$38.2B
44
IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.$5.2B
66
SKYChampion Homes, Inc.$4.7B
81

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own NVR, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest NVR news & analysis

Mortgage Rates Are Keeping Buyers on the Sidelines. When They Finally Drop, Here Are 2 Homebuilder Stocks I'm Dying to Buy

The Motley Fool · 24 Sept 2026negative

The Motley Fool reports that high mortgage rates are straining home affordability, keeping buyers on the sidelines and leaving homebuilders including NVR struggling. The article notes NVR would benefit if mortgage rates eventually decline.

Why it matters — The report highlights how elevated mortgage rates are pressuring NVR's business conditions, indicating that affordability challenges are currently weighing on the homebuilder alongside market demand.

PSMMY or NVR: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published an article comparing Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and NVR (NVR) as value stock opportunities in the Building Products - Home Builders sector, posing the question of which currently offers the better value to investors.

Why it matters — An NVR watcher would care because the piece evaluates NVR's relative value position against a peer home builder, which could shape investor perception.

Berkshire Boosts Its Bet: This AI Hyperscaler Is Now a Top-3 Holding

MarketBeat · 25 Aug 2026neutral

Berkshire Hathaway released its latest portfolio update, which the article highlights as showing increased investment in an AI hyperscaler that is now among its top-three holdings.

Why it matters — NVR watchers may find the news relevant only as a broad market context item, since it concerns Berkshire's holdings and an AI hyperscaler rather than NVR or the homebuilding sector.

NVR Director George Oliver Buys $405K in Stock -- Should Investors Buy Too?

The Motley Fool · 13 Aug 2026positive

NVR director George Oliver purchased 63 shares of stock, totaling approximately $405,185 in capital commitment. The transaction establishes his inaugural direct equity position in the company, representing 100% of his current stock holdings.

Why it matters — A director establishing a first direct equity stake in NVR signals insider confidence that NVR watchers may track when assessing the company.

PHM or NVR: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Zacks Investment Research · 31 July 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published an article comparing PulteGroup (PHM) and NVR (NVR), asking which of the two home builder stocks offers the better value opportunity right now.

Why it matters — NVR watchers would care because the article positions NVR against a peer in a value comparison, which could influence how the stock is perceived by value-focused investors.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about NVR stock

What is the NVR stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering NVR, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $6,700, with estimates ranging from $5,058 to $7,400. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is NVR stock a buy right now?

Of the 7 analysts covering NVR, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks NVR, Inc. 41 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank NVR?

As at 6 Oct 2026, NVR, Inc. ranks 41 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (100 of 100).

Will NVR stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies +10.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks NVR, Inc. 41 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the NVR stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering NVR, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for NVR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $5,058 to $7,400 over the next 12 months.

How has NVR stock performed over the past year?

NVR, Inc. returned -25.1% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does NVR, Inc. do?

NVR, Inc. is an American homebuilding and mortgage banking company headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

What is the latest news on NVR?

The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 24 Sept 2026): "Mortgage Rates Are Keeping Buyers on the Sidelines. When They Finally Drop, Here Are 2 Homebuilder Stocks I'm Dying to Buy". The Motley Fool reports that high mortgage rates are straining home affordability, keeping buyers on the sidelines and leaving homebuilders including NVR struggling. The article notes NVR would benefit if mortgage rates eventually decline.

Company

About NVR, Inc.

NVR, Inc. is an American homebuilding and mortgage banking company headquartered in Reston, Virginia. The company operates through two core business segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking. Its homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. NVR, Inc. serves a broad range of buyers, including first-time, move-up, and luxury customers, and supports them with related mortgage, title, and closing services. The company’s integrated model connects home construction with financing and settlement services, giving it a significant role in residential real estate markets across multiple U.S. regions. As one of the nation’s leading homebuilders, NVR, Inc. is a notable participant in the housing industry and the broader financial market.

CEO Mr. Eugene James Bredow · 6,300 employees · United States · https://www.nvrinc.com