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TXRHTXRHConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants

TXRH Stock Forecast: Texas Roadhouse, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Oct 2026
$156
−0.36% on the day

The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $220 — +40.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 65 of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$10.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
65 / 100
Median analyst target
$220
Analysts covering
28
Revenue$1.7B+11.1% y/y
Operating income$142.9M
Net income$124.5M
Free cash flow$81.5M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.3%
1M
−18.2%
YTD
−4.8%
1Y
−3.9%
From 52W high
−26.9%
From 52W low
+0.9%
$155
$214
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TXRH stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Texas Roadhouse, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Oct 2026
65 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
92
Quality
86
Revisions
76
Value
64
Momentum
53
Accruals
53
Issuance
50
Growth
39
Size
15

Volatility (92): The share price has been relatively steady.

Growth (39): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Size (15): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TXRH stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TXRH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$150$200$250$300Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26TXRHHigh $276Median $220Low $133

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says28 analysts
15 Buy12 Hold1 Sell
Low $133Median $220High $276

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +40.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 9 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
29 Sept 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$202 → $200
25 Sept 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$200 → $220
16 Sept 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatesBuy$195
16 Sept 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatesBuy—
10 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral$192 → $208
10 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral—
7 Aug 2026BTIGMaintainsBuy$200 → $220
7 Aug 2026BTIGMaintainsBuy—
7 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
7 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$193 → $209
7 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform$210 → $235
7 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
7 Aug 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight$180 → $205
7 Aug 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight—
7 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$205 → $230
7 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
7 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
7 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$220 → $230
3 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
3 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$210 → $235

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TXRH appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TXRH vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. returned −3.9% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TXRH vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26TXRHS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TXRH analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+2.8%
Analysts raising
25
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.0×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.6×

Cheaper than 56% of US stocks

Price / book
6.7×

Cheaper than 15% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
15.8×

Cheaper than 21% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.1%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−1.7%

Higher than 34% of US stocks

Gross margin
16.8%

Higher than 16% of US stocks

Operating margin
8.5%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Net margin
6.6%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
27.7%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.7%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.9%

Higher than 41% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Texas Roadhouse, Inc. has a market value of $10.2B and an enterprise value of $11.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.2B. The latest quarter grew 11.1% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $422.1M, a 6.8% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $6.25.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $400.4M, after $396.9M of capital spending.

  • Texas Roadhouse, Inc. spent $167.9M on share buybacks and $188.6M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 65.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 25.0×; forward P/E: 20.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.92%, paying out 46% of earnings.

  • Texas Roadhouse, Inc. employs 101,000 people — $62K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 3 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TXRH vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRestaurants
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.$10.2B
65
DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.$9.8B
76
EATBrinker International, Inc.$8.4B
86
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.$14.1B
89
BROSDutch Bros, Inc.$6.8B
32
CAVACava Group, Inc.$6.3B
35
CAKECheesecake Factory, Inc.$5.5B
91

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Texas Roadhouse, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TXRH news & analysis

Chipotle Is Down 14% Compared to McDonald's 24%. But There's an Even Better Restaurant Stock to Buy in October.

The Motley Fool · 2 Oct 2026positive

The Motley Fool highlights Texas Roadhouse as a restaurant stock worth considering despite the recent stock pullback, noting the company is still growing sales, adding restaurants, and attracting customers. The article emphasizes Texas Roadhouse's strong customer loyalty and steady traffic as providing a cushion if the economy weakens.

Why it matters — For Texas Roadhouse watchers, this signals that the company's consistent traffic and customer loyalty may help it weather economic headwinds despite the recent share-price decline.

CAVA vs. Texas Roadhouse: Which Restaurant Stock Has the Edge?

Zacks Investment Research · 23 Sept 2026positive

A Zacks piece compares CAVA and Texas Roadhouse, noting TXRH has an edge with stronger projected EPS growth, better estimate revisions, and a lower forward P/E, while CAVA faces cost pressures.

Why it matters — The report highlights Texas Roadhouse's comparative strengths in earnings growth, estimate revisions, and valuation versus a restaurant-sector peer.

Despite Record Sales, Texas Roadhouse Has Beef With Beef Costs

MarketBeat · 22 Sept 2026negative

Texas Roadhouse reported record average weekly sales in the second quarter, with comparable sales up 6.2% and positive customer traffic. However, since the report, shares have retreated sharply from their summer high amid broader restaurant-sector concerns about consumer spending, inflation, and rising operating costs.

Why it matters — A TXRH watcher would care because it shows strong sales performance is being overshadowed by investor worries about cost inflation and consumer spending that have driven the stock down from its summer peak.

Texas Roadhouse: The Sirloin Effect

Seeking Alpha · 17 Sept 2026positive

Texas Roadhouse posted roughly 6.2% same-store sales growth, including 3% from traffic, with average unit volumes near $9.5 million and gross margin improvements tied to favorable sirloin prices. Management guided to 2-3% COGS inflation in Q3 and about 5% in Q4, cautioning against annualizing recent margin gains.

Why it matters — A TXRH watcher would care because the item highlights resilient traffic and market-share gains but also flags upcoming cost inflation that could temper recent margin momentum.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is an Incredible Growth Stock: 3 Reasons Why

Zacks Investment Research · 15 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlighted Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) as an "Incredible Growth Stock," citing three reasons why it is well positioned to outperform the market due to its above-average growth in financials.

Why it matters — This positive coverage underscores TXRH's strong financial growth and market outperformance potential, which could be relevant for investors tracking the company.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TXRH stock

What is the TXRH stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $220, with estimates ranging from $133 to $276. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TXRH stock a buy right now?

Of the 28 analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc., 15 rate it a Buy, 12 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 65 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TXRH?

As at 2 Oct 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ranks 65 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (92 of 100).

Will TXRH stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 28 analysts implies +40.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 65 out of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TXRH stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TXRH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $133 to $276 over the next 12 months.

How has TXRH stock performed over the past year?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. returned -3.9% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?

Texas Roadhouse Inc. is a full-service casual dining restaurant company that operates across the United States and international markets.

What is the latest news on TXRH?

The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 2 Oct 2026): "Chipotle Is Down 14% Compared to McDonald's 24%. But There's an Even Better Restaurant Stock to Buy in October.". The Motley Fool highlights Texas Roadhouse as a restaurant stock worth considering despite the recent stock pullback, noting the company is still growing sales, adding restaurants, and attracting customers. The article emphasizes Texas Roadhouse's strong customer loyalty and steady traffic as providing a cushion if the economy weakens.

Company

About Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. is a full-service casual dining restaurant company that operates across the United States and international markets. Its core brand focuses on hand-cut steaks, ribs, chicken, seafood, burgers, salads, sandwiches, and other made-to-order menu items served in a lively, Western-themed setting. The company also operates Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers, extending its reach into additional casual dining and fast-casual concepts. Texas Roadhouse Inc. serves a broad customer base through company-owned and franchised restaurants, making it a notable operator in the restaurant industry. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, it plays a significant role in the casual dining segment by combining a differentiated menu, family-oriented atmosphere, and multi-brand restaurant portfolio.

CEO Mr. Gerald L. Morgan · 101,000 employees · United States · https://www.texasroadhouse.com