TXRHConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 28 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $205 — +18.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 54 of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Texas Roadhouse, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (91): The share price has been relatively steady.
Growth (39): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (14): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TXRH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +18.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $230 → $195 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $212 → $221 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Upgrade | Overweight | $205 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Buy | $186 → $190 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | StoneX | Upgrade | Buy | $200 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | StoneX | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | Outperform | $220 → $200 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 5 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 5 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $235 → $220 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $202 → $200 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | In-Line | $200 → $220 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | In-Line | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Seaport Global | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Seaport Global | Initiates | Buy | $195 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | $192 → $208 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | $200 → $220 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
TXRH appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 22 Oct 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. returned −1.8% against +15.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 28% of US stocks
Cheaper than 54% of US stocks
Cheaper than 13% of US stocks
Cheaper than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 34% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 64% of US stocks
Higher than 86% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 77% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. has a market value of $11.0B and an enterprise value of $11.9B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.2B. The latest quarter grew 11.1% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $422.1M, a 6.8% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $6.25.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $400.4M, after $396.9M of capital spending.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. spent $167.9M on share buybacks and $188.6M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 26.9×; forward P/E: 21.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.79%, paying out 46% of earnings.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. employs 101,000 people — $62K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Texas Roadhouse, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Texas Roadhouse announced it will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on November 5, 2026. A conference call will follow at 5:00 p.m. ET and be webcast live on the company’s investor relations website.
Why it matters — TXRH watchers can note the scheduled date and time for the company’s quarterly results and conference call.
The Motley Fool highlights Texas Roadhouse as a restaurant stock worth considering despite the recent stock pullback, noting the company is still growing sales, adding restaurants, and attracting customers. The article emphasizes Texas Roadhouse's strong customer loyalty and steady traffic as providing a cushion if the economy weakens.
Why it matters — For Texas Roadhouse watchers, this signals that the company's consistent traffic and customer loyalty may help it weather economic headwinds despite the recent share-price decline.
A Zacks piece compares CAVA and Texas Roadhouse, noting TXRH has an edge with stronger projected EPS growth, better estimate revisions, and a lower forward P/E, while CAVA faces cost pressures.
Why it matters — The report highlights Texas Roadhouse's comparative strengths in earnings growth, estimate revisions, and valuation versus a restaurant-sector peer.
Texas Roadhouse reported record average weekly sales in the second quarter, with comparable sales up 6.2% and positive customer traffic. However, since the report, shares have retreated sharply from their summer high amid broader restaurant-sector concerns about consumer spending, inflation, and rising operating costs.
Why it matters — A TXRH watcher would care because it shows strong sales performance is being overshadowed by investor worries about cost inflation and consumer spending that have driven the stock down from its summer peak.
Texas Roadhouse posted roughly 6.2% same-store sales growth, including 3% from traffic, with average unit volumes near $9.5 million and gross margin improvements tied to favorable sirloin prices. Management guided to 2-3% COGS inflation in Q3 and about 5% in Q4, cautioning against annualizing recent margin gains.
Why it matters — A TXRH watcher would care because the item highlights resilient traffic and market-share gains but also flags upcoming cost inflation that could temper recent margin momentum.
The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $205, with estimates ranging from $133 to $251. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 28 analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc., 19 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 54 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Oct 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ranks 54 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (91 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 28 analysts implies +18.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 54 out of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TXRH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $133 to $251 over the next 12 months.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. returned -1.8% over the 12 months to 22 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Texas Roadhouse Inc. is a full-service casual dining restaurant company that operates across the United States and international markets.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 8 Oct 2026): "Texas Roadhouse, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter Earnings on November 5, 2026". Texas Roadhouse announced it will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on November 5, 2026. A conference call will follow at 5:00 p.m. ET and be webcast live on the company’s investor relations website.
Texas Roadhouse Inc. is a full-service casual dining restaurant company that operates across the United States and international markets. Its core brand focuses on hand-cut steaks, ribs, chicken, seafood, burgers, salads, sandwiches, and other made-to-order menu items served in a lively, Western-themed setting. The company also operates Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers, extending its reach into additional casual dining and fast-casual concepts. Texas Roadhouse Inc. serves a broad customer base through company-owned and franchised restaurants, making it a notable operator in the restaurant industry. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, it plays a significant role in the casual dining segment by combining a differentiated menu, family-oriented atmosphere, and multi-brand restaurant portfolio.
CEO Mr. Gerald L. Morgan · 101,000 employees · United States · https://www.texasroadhouse.com
