LUVIndustrials · AirlinesThe 25 Wall Street analysts covering Southwest Airlines Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $50 — +20.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 80 of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Southwest Airlines Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (85): The share price has been relatively steady.
Revisions (57): Analysts have, on balance, been cutting their forecasts.
Size (10): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on LUV, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +20.3% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 6 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sept 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Upgrade | Neutral | $35 → $40 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $65 → $58 |
| 10 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 10 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $56 → $49 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $60 → $54 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $53 → $48 |
| 24 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $59 → $60 |
| 24 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $55 → $50 |
| 24 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 24 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $60 → $59 |
| 7 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Neutral | $44 → $55 |
| 6 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $60 → $65 |
| 6 July 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 6 July 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $55 → $60 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. LUV appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 24 Sept 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. returned +27.9% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 29% of US stocks
Cheaper than 77% of US stocks
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Cheaper than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 64% of US stocks
Higher than 47% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Southwest Airlines Co. has a market value of $20.1B and an enterprise value of $23.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $30.1B. The latest quarter grew 16.4% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $837.0M, a 2.8% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.63.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$455.0M, after $451.0M of capital spending.
Southwest Airlines Co. spent $1.6B on share buybacks and $370.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 25.5×; forward P/E: 8.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.75%, paying out 45% of earnings.
Southwest Airlines Co. employs 73,456 people — $409K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Southwest Airlines Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said a massive telecom outage that disrupted thousands of flights on Monday will not occur again under a new, modern, resilient air traffic control system being introduced.
Why it matters — A more resilient air traffic control system could help reduce future flight disruptions that affect Southwest's operations and passengers.
Seeking Alpha highlights Southwest Airlines' commercial overhaul into a merchandised airline with new fare ladders and ancillary products, which drove 20% adjusted unit revenue growth on flat capacity. Despite a $900 million fuel headwind, LUV expanded operating income by 27% and improved operating margin, aided by its investment-grade balance sheet and disciplined capacity management.
Why it matters — For LUV watchers, this signals that revenue transformation and margin resilience are being achieved even while fuel costs remain a significant burden.
A failed telecom circuit at a Philadelphia air-traffic facility shut down major New York City-area airports for hours on Monday, disrupting more than 1,000 flights as world leaders arrived for the UN General Assembly. Airline stocks recovered quickly during the day, with United Airlines up 5%.
Why it matters — A LUV watcher would care because the New York-area ground stop affected major airports that Southwest serves, though the item highlights broader airline-sector impact rather than Southwest-specific performance.
Seeking Alpha maintains a buy rating on Southwest Airlines, citing successful commercial transformation and strong demand, despite higher fuel costs limiting near-term upside. The article notes projected EBIT gains from assigned seating and bag fees through 2026-2027, with EBITDA forecast to rise through 2028, while free cash flow remains constrained by elevated capital expenditures and transformation costs.
Why it matters — A LUV watcher would care because the article highlights how Southwest's commercial changes—assigned seating, extra legroom, and bag fees—are expected to materially boost earnings while fuel costs and heavy spending weigh on near-term cash flow.
Redburn upgraded Southwest Airlines (LUV) to neutral, ending its previous bearish stance. In a separate move, Airbnb (ABNB) received a price target hike from Citizens.
Why it matters — A LUV watcher would care because a major research firm moving away from its bearish position signals a more balanced or improved outlook for the airline.
The 25 Wall Street analysts covering Southwest Airlines Co. have a median 12-month price target of $50, with estimates ranging from $35 to $65. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 25 analysts covering Southwest Airlines Co., 11 rate it a Buy, 11 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Southwest Airlines Co. 80 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 23 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 23 Sept 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. ranks 80 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (85 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +20.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Southwest Airlines Co. 80 out of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Southwest Airlines Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for LUV are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $35 to $65 over the next 12 months.
Southwest Airlines Co. returned +27.9% over the 12 months to 24 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Southwest Airlines Co. is a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation across the United States and select near-international markets.
The most recent item we track (Reuters, 22 Sept 2026): "US says new air traffic control system will prevent future disruptions". U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said a massive telecom outage that disrupted thousands of flights on Monday will not occur again under a new, modern, resilient air traffic control system being introduced.
Southwest Airlines Co. is a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation across the United States and select near-international markets. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, it operates a point-to-point network designed for frequent short- and medium-haul travel, with nonstop service connecting major cities, leisure destinations, and regional markets. The company offers a range of fare products, along with services such as checked baggage options, EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation for pets and unaccompanied minors. Southwest Airlines Co. also supports travelers through its Rapid Rewards loyalty program and vacation packages, making it part of both the airline and broader travel services markets. Its all-Boeing 737 fleet and focus on streamlined operations help define its role as a major low-cost carrier in the North American aviation industry.
CEO Mr. Robert E. Jordan · 73,456 employees · United States · https://www.southwest.com
