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MPC Stock Forecast: Marathon Petroleum Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 30 Oct 2026
$445
+2.87% on the day

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $470 — +5.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 93 of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$129.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
93/ 100
Median analyst target
$470
Analysts covering
19
Revenue$52.0B+53.8% y/y
Operating income$7.0B
Net income$5.5B
Free cash flow$9.1B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.7%
1M
+12.5%
YTD
+176.7%
1Y
+131.2%
From 52W high
−8.3%
From 52W low
+176.7%
$161
$485
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MPC stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Marathon Petroleum Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 31 Oct 2026
93/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Momentum
97
Revisions
94
Growth
92
Volatility
79
Value
66
Issuance
65
Accruals
63
Quality
62
Size
2

Momentum (97): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.

Quality (62): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.

Wall Street

MPC stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MPC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$200$300$400$500$600Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MPCHigh $560Median $470Low $236

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says19 analysts
9 Buy9 Hold1 Sell
Low $236Median $470High $560

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +5.6% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 10 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
22 Oct 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$450 → $478
14 Oct 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$400 → $560
14 Oct 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
13 Oct 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
13 Oct 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$318 → $518
12 Oct 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$321 → $488
12 Oct 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
12 Oct 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$330 → $420
12 Oct 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
8 Oct 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
8 Oct 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$304 → $457
2 Oct 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—
2 Oct 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral$410 → $426
22 Sept 2026JefferiesDowngradeHold—
22 Sept 2026JefferiesDowngradeHold$413
21 Sept 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$376 → $472
21 Sept 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
14 Sept 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$265 → $453
14 Sept 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
14 Sept 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$350 → $445

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

MPC appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

  • Market Radar, every Monday: the week's biggest rank moves across ~4,600 US stocks, and the reason for each.
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Performance

MPC vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 30 Oct 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +131.2% against +12.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MPC vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100150200250Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MPCS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MPC analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingThis fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+61.8%
Analysts raising
11
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.4×

Cheaper than 45% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.8×

Cheaper than 72% of US stocks

Price / book
6.6×

Cheaper than 14% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
10.3×

Cheaper than 37% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
53.7%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
322.5%

Higher than 93% of US stocks

Gross margin
15.6%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.6%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
5.5%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
42.1%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.7%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.9%

Higher than 70% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. has a market value of $129.8B and an enterprise value of $158.1B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $153.6B. The latest quarter grew 53.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $10.3B, a 6.7% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $29.09.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.9B.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. spent $4.9B on share buybacks and $1.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 283.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 15.4×; forward P/E: 7.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.90%, paying out 14% of earnings.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. employs 18,500 people — $8.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 1 Nov 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MPC vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp.$129.8B93
VLOValero Energy Corp.$111.5B99
PSXPhillips 66$110.3B97
DINOHF Sinclair Corp.$19.7B99
PBFPBF Energy, Inc.$9.2B98
CVICVR Energy, Inc.$5.9B92
WMBThe Williams Cos., Inc.*$90.9B51

* Nearest Energy names by size — few oil & gas refining & marketing companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Marathon Petroleum Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MPC news & analysis

FOMO Rally: Top 5 Stocks To Buy Ahead Of 2026 Midterms

Seeking Alpha · 1 Nov 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha describes an AI-driven market rally amid stronger-than-expected Q3 U.S. GDP and robust consumer spending, while noting a softening job market, sticky inflation, and tight financial conditions. It also cites historical post-midterm stock market gains averaging nearly 15%, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

Why it matters — The excerpt discusses broad market and economic conditions but provides no MPC-specific information, so it offers limited direct insight for MPC watchers.

Here's Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Strong Momentum Stock

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Oct 2026positive

A Zacks Investment Research headline describes Marathon Petroleum (MPC) as a strong momentum stock. The excerpt notes that Zacks Style Scores are a feature of its Premium research service for helping investors find stocks across value, growth, and momentum styles.

Why it matters — MPC watchers may note that the item presents the company through a momentum-investing lens and references Zacks’ Style Scores.

4 Value Stocks to Buy With Attractive PEG Ratios and Growth Potential

Zacks Investment Research · 29 Oct 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research highlights four value stocks with attractive PEG ratios, growth potential and favorable value scores, which it says may help investors avoid value traps. The excerpt does not identify Marathon Petroleum as one of the stocks.

Why it matters — The item offers no specific information about MPC, so it has limited direct relevance to MPC watchers.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MPC stock

What is the MPC stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $470, with estimates ranging from $236 to $560. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MPC stock a buy right now?

Of the 19 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp., 9 rate it a Buy, 9 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 93 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 31 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MPC?

As at 31 Oct 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. ranks 93 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (97 of 100).

Will MPC stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies +5.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 93 out of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MPC stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MPC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $236 to $560 over the next 12 months.

How has MPC stock performed over the past year?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +131.2% over the 12 months to 30 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Marathon Petroleum Corp. do?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

What is the latest news on MPC?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 1 Nov 2026): "FOMO Rally: Top 5 Stocks To Buy Ahead Of 2026 Midterms". Seeking Alpha describes an AI-driven market rally amid stronger-than-expected Q3 U.S. GDP and robust consumer spending, while noting a softening job market, sticky inflation, and tight financial conditions. It also cites historical post-midterm stock market gains averaging nearly 15%, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

Company

About Marathon Petroleum Corp.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. operates a large refining network that processes crude oil into transportation fuels and other petroleum products, while also handling storage, transportation, and marketing activities that move those products through the supply chain. Its business includes branded retail and wholesale fuel distribution across the United States, as well as ownership interests in MPLX LP, which supports gathering, processing, fractionation, and logistics infrastructure for crude oil and light products. The company also participates in renewable diesel operations, adding another segment to its broader energy portfolio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. plays a central role in U.S. fuel supply and energy logistics through its refining, marketing, and midstream capabilities.

CEO Ms. Maryann T. Mannen · 18,500 employees · United States · https://www.marathonpetroleum.com