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MPC Stock Forecast: Marathon Petroleum Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 24 Aug 2026
$363
+0.50% on the day

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $322 — -11.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 96 of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$101.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
96 / 100
Median analyst target
$322
Analysts covering
19
Revenue$52.0B+53.8% y/y
Operating income$7.0B
Net income$5.5B
Free cash flow$9.1B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.5%
1M
+17.5%
YTD
+125.5%
1Y
+115.7%
From 52W high
−0.7%
From 52W low
+125.5%
$161
$365
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MPC stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Marathon Petroleum Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 22 Aug 2026
96 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
95
Momentum
94
Revisions
90
Value
83
Volatility
75
Quality
73
Issuance
65
Accruals
61
Size
3

Growth (95): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Accruals (61): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (3): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MPC stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MPC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$150$200$250$300$350$400Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MPCHigh $413Median $322Low $186

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says19 analysts
10 Buy8 Hold1 Sell
Low $186Median $322High $413

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −11.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 13 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
11 Aug 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$284 → $304
6 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$289 → $321
6 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$343 → $344
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$303 → $318
5 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$300 → $330
5 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$357 → $375
5 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$344 → $359
23 July 2026Piper SandlerAssumesOverweight$343
22 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
22 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$291 → $376
21 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
21 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$315 → $357
14 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
14 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$257 → $303
13 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$270 → $289
13 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
13 July 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
13 July 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$245 → $300
13 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$300 → $335
13 July 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MPC appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MPC vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 24 Aug 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +115.7% against +19.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MPC vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100150200Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MPCS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MPC analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+81.9%
Analysts raising
12
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
12.5×

Cheaper than 53% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.7×

Cheaper than 78% of US stocks

Price / book
5.4×

Cheaper than 21% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
8.7×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
53.7%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
322.5%

Higher than 93% of US stocks

Gross margin
15.6%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.6%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Net margin
5.5%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
42.1%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.7%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.1%

Higher than 26% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. has a market value of $101.3B and an enterprise value of $134.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $153.6B. The latest quarter grew 53.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $10.3B, a 6.7% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $29.09.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.9B.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. spent $4.9B on share buybacks and $1.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 283.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 12.5×; forward P/E: 11.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.11%, paying out 14% of earnings.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. employs 18,500 people — $8.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 25 Aug 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MPC vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp.$101.3B
96
VLOValero Energy Corp.$103.6B
98
PSXPhillips 66$97.9B
89
DINOHF Sinclair Corp.$17.9B
97
PBFPBF Energy, Inc.$8.5B
94
WMBThe Williams Cos., Inc.*$86.2B
43
DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.$4.3B
99

* Nearest Energy names by size — few oil & gas refining & marketing companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Marathon Petroleum Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MPC news & analysis

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?

Zacks Investment Research · 24 Aug 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research published an article examining whether Marathon Petroleum (MPC) qualifies as a top momentum stock pick for investors. The piece evaluates the company's characteristics against momentum investing criteria.

Why it matters — MPC watchers would care because the analysis assesses whether the company's recent price and earnings momentum make it a compelling candidate in the current market.

Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - August 2026

Seeking Alpha · 22 Aug 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published an article outlining its methodology for selecting the top 10 high-growth dividend stocks from nearly 500 candidates, based on dividend growth, sustainability, sector diversity, quality scores, and positive momentum. The list targets investors in the accumulation phase.

Why it matters — MPC watchers would care because the article evaluates high-growth dividend stocks, potentially indicating whether MPC is considered among the selected names.

Here's Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Strong Value Stock

Zacks Investment Research · 21 Aug 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlighted Marathon Petroleum (MPC) as a strong value stock. The report points to Zacks Style Scores, a tool that helps investors identify top-rated stocks based on their investing style, as the basis for this assessment.

Why it matters — A positive value-stock designation from Zacks could draw investor attention to MPC's current valuation characteristics.

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records: 3 Refiners Turning the Crisis Into Record Profits

24/7 Wall Street · 18 Aug 2026positive

The article reports that while crude oil is telling one story this week, diesel prices are breaking records, and it highlights three refiners that are turning the crisis into record profits.

Why it matters — As a refiner, Marathon Petroleum could be among those benefiting from elevated diesel prices, making the report relevant to its outlook.

Marathon Surges 51% After Q2 Results: Is the Stock Still a Buy?

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Aug 2026positive

Marathon Petroleum's stock surged 51% following its Q2 results, supported by higher refining margins and an improving earnings outlook. The article notes the rally is underpinned by these fundamentals but also flags lingering cyclical risks.

Why it matters — An MPC watcher would care because the sharp rally reflects stronger-than-expected Q2 results and improved refining margin-driven earnings prospects, while the remaining cyclical risks could influence future performance.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MPC stock

What is the MPC stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $322, with estimates ranging from $186 to $413. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MPC stock a buy right now?

Of the 19 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp., 10 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MPC?

As at 22 Aug 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. ranks 96 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (95 of 100).

Will MPC stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -11.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MPC stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MPC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $186 to $413 over the next 12 months.

How has MPC stock performed over the past year?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +115.7% over the 12 months to 24 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Marathon Petroleum Corp. do?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a U.S.-based integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. It operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, converting crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, and renewable diesel for transportation, industrial, and commercial use.

What is the latest news on MPC?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 24 Aug 2026): "Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?". Zacks Investment Research published an article examining whether Marathon Petroleum (MPC) qualifies as a top momentum stock pick for investors. The piece evaluates the company's characteristics against momentum investing criteria.

Company

About Marathon Petroleum Corp.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a U.S.-based integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. It operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, converting crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, and renewable diesel for transportation, industrial, and commercial use. The company’s Refining & Marketing activities span key regions such as the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast, supported by an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, barges, and logistics assets that move refined products efficiently to wholesale customers, independent retailers, and branded Marathon retail outlets nationwide. Through its Midstream operations, largely held via its interest in MPLX LP, Marathon Petroleum provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, and transportation services for crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, underpinning the broader U.S. energy infrastructure. The addition of a Renewable Diesel segment further positions Marathon Petroleum in low-carbon fuel markets, making it a significant supplier of renewable diesel alongside its conventional petroleum products. Founded in 1887 and headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, the company today plays a central role in the U.S. fuel supply chain and energy logistics system.

CEO Ms. Maryann T. Mannen · 18,500 employees · United States · https://www.marathonpetroleum.com