MPCEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $407 — -6.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 96 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Marathon Petroleum Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Momentum (99): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.
Accruals (62): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MPC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −6.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 9 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $410 → $426 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | — |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | $413 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | $376 → $472 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $265 → $453 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $350 → $445 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 8 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $321 → $450 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 3 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | $344 → $462 |
| 3 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $359 → $400 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $284 → $304 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $289 → $321 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MPC appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +127.1% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 46% of US stocks
Cheaper than 73% of US stocks
Cheaper than 16% of US stocks
Cheaper than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 93% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 70% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. has a market value of $118.6B and an enterprise value of $151.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $153.6B. The latest quarter grew 53.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $10.3B, a 6.7% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $29.09.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.9B.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. spent $4.9B on share buybacks and $1.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.6×; forward P/E: 8.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.95%, paying out 14% of earnings.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. employs 18,500 people — $8.3M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp. | $118.6B | 96 |
| VLOValero Energy Corp. | $124.5B | 97 |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $107.7B | 88 |
| DINOHF Sinclair Corp. | $21.1B | 96 |
| PBFPBF Energy, Inc. | $9.8B | 91 |
| CVICVR Energy, Inc. | $5.8B | 94 |
| COPConocophillips* | $159.8B | 87 |
* Nearest Energy names by size — few oil & gas refining & marketing companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Marathon Petroleum Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
MPC targets Q3 throughput of 3 million barrels per day, citing high utilization, strong margins and refinery projects as support for its growth outlook.
Why it matters — The target and cited operating factors indicate the throughput level MPC expects to sustain in the third quarter.
On the latest trading day, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed at $433.47, up 2.64% from its previous close, outperforming the broader market.
Why it matters — The share price gain indicates positive market movement for MPC on that trading day, relevant for investors tracking the stock's performance.
Zacks reports that Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has a strong earnings surprise history and currently possesses the two key factors that could support another earnings beat in its next quarterly report.
Why it matters — A possible continuation of MPC's earnings beat streak is directly relevant to investors watching the company's upcoming quarterly results.
24/7 Wall Street identifies four ultra-high-yield dividend stocks with yields above 6% that are backed by cash flow and long streaks of annual dividend increases, framing them as relatively safe income picks. Marathon Petroleum is not specifically named in the excerpt provided.
Why it matters — An MPC watcher would care because the article highlights the broader universe of high-yield energy and dividend stocks, providing context on what investors consider safe, well-supported payouts in the sector.
Marathon Petroleum stock rose 5% to $413.75 in afternoon trading as refining stocks outpaced integrated oil majors, with the move attributed to fuel margins widening the gap between the two groups. Valero Energy also gained 4%, while Exxon Mobil stayed flat.
Why it matters — Marathon Petroleum's share gain reflects improving fuel margins that are boosting pure-play refiners relative to integrated majors, a key driver for the company's near-term performance.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $407, with estimates ranging from $236 to $472. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp., 9 rate it a Buy, 9 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 6 Oct 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. ranks 96 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -6.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MPC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $236 to $472 over the next 12 months.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +127.1% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 6 Oct 2026): "MPC Targets 3M Barrels per day in Q3: Can Strong Throughput Continue?". MPC targets Q3 throughput of 3 million barrels per day, citing high utilization, strong margins and refinery projects as support for its growth outlook.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. operates a large refining network that processes crude oil into transportation fuels and other petroleum products, while also handling storage, transportation, and marketing activities that move those products through the supply chain. Its business includes branded retail and wholesale fuel distribution across the United States, as well as ownership interests in MPLX LP, which supports gathering, processing, fractionation, and logistics infrastructure for crude oil and light products. The company also participates in renewable diesel operations, adding another segment to its broader energy portfolio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. plays a central role in U.S. fuel supply and energy logistics through its refining, marketing, and midstream capabilities.
CEO Ms. Maryann T. Mannen · 18,500 employees · United States · https://www.marathonpetroleum.com
