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MPC Stock Forecast: Marathon Petroleum Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Sept 2026
$396
+0.13% on the day

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $358 — -9.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 96 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$111.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
96 / 100
Median analyst target
$358
Analysts covering
19
Revenue$52.0B+53.8% y/y
Operating income$7.0B
Net income$5.5B
Free cash flow$9.1B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.9%
1M
+11.8%
YTD
+146.6%
1Y
+123.6%
From 52W high
−0.7%
From 52W low
+146.6%
$161
$399
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MPC stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Marathon Petroleum Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
96 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Momentum
98
Growth
94
Revisions
93
Value
78
Volatility
74
Quality
71
Issuance
65
Accruals
62
Size
2

Momentum (98): The shares have been drifting up relative to others.

Accruals (62): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MPC stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MPC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$200$300$400$500Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MPCHigh $462Median $358Low $186

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says19 analysts
10 Buy8 Hold1 Sell
Low $186Median $358High $462

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −9.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 11 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
8 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$321 → $450
3 Sept 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$344 → $462
1 Sept 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$359 → $400
11 Aug 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
11 Aug 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$284 → $304
6 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$289 → $321
6 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
6 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
6 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$343 → $344
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$303 → $318
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
5 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
5 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$300 → $330
5 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$357 → $375
5 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
5 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$344 → $359
5 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
23 July 2026Piper SandlerAssumesOverweight$343
22 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
22 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$291 → $376

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MPC appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MPC vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 14 Sept 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +123.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MPC vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100150200Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MPCS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MPC analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+73.2%
Analysts raising
12
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
13.7×

Cheaper than 49% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.7×

Cheaper than 76% of US stocks

Price / book
5.9×

Cheaper than 17% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
9.4×

Cheaper than 40% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
53.7%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
322.5%

Higher than 93% of US stocks

Gross margin
15.6%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.6%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Net margin
5.5%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
42.1%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.7%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.0%

Higher than 22% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. has a market value of $111.2B and an enterprise value of $144.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $153.6B. The latest quarter grew 53.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $10.3B, a 6.7% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $29.09.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.9B.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. spent $4.9B on share buybacks and $1.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 283.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 13.7×; forward P/E: 11.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.01%, paying out 14% of earnings.

  • Marathon Petroleum Corp. employs 18,500 people — $8.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 13 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MPC vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp.$111.2B
96
VLOValero Energy Corp.$115.9B
97
PSXPhillips 66$104.5B
88
DINOHF Sinclair Corp.$19.8B
97
PBFPBF Energy, Inc.$9.1B
94
CVICVR Energy, Inc.$5.0B
90
DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.$4.6B
98

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Marathon Petroleum Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MPC news & analysis

Oil Stock Nears Record High After Price-Target Boost

Schaeffers Research · 14 Sept 2026positive

Marathon Petroleum Corporation shares rose 2% to trade at $403.70, as global oil prices climbed following Saudi Arabia's shutdown of a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The stock is approaching a record high.

Why it matters — Rising oil prices and the recent uptick in Marathon Petroleum's shares are directly relevant to investors tracking the company's performance near its record high.

Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research compares year-to-date performance of Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PBF Energy (PBF) relative to the broader Oils-Energy sector. The article examines how the two companies' stock performance stacks up against their sector peers so far this year.

Why it matters — MPC watchers would care because the article provides a sector-relative performance comparison that helps contextualize how Marathon Petroleum is faring against both its peer PBF Energy and the broader energy group.

Marathon Petroleum: Further Upside With Refining Boom Likely Set To Last Through 2027

Seeking Alpha · 14 Sept 2026positive

Marathon Petroleum has seen exceptional returns, with shares up nearly 50% since July, driven by surging crack spreads and global supply disruptions that have kept refining margins at historic highs. The company's second-quarter net income quadrupled, free cash flow soared, and share buybacks are accelerating, supported by a strong balance sheet and excess cash.

Why it matters — A MPC watcher would care because the article highlights that the refining boom and historically high margins, which have driven robust earnings, cash flow, and buybacks, are expected to persist through 2027.

Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers

MarketBeat · 12 Sept 2026neutral

MarketBeat reports that with oil prices above $100 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, new investment opportunities are emerging beyond the major producers. The article notes the familiar pattern where rising oil prices tend to pressure stock markets.

Why it matters — For Marathon Petroleum Corp. watchers, the piece highlights that elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions may create opportunities for refiners and midstream players beyond the largest integrated producers.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Considered a Good Investment by Brokers: Is That True?

Zacks Investment Research · 11 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published a piece questioning whether Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is genuinely a good investment based on broker recommendations, noting that media reports about analyst rating changes often influence stock prices but raising the question of whether such ratings truly matter.

Why it matters — MPC watchers would care because it examines the reliability and significance of brokerage analyst recommendations that often sway the stock's price.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MPC stock

What is the MPC stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $358, with estimates ranging from $186 to $462. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MPC stock a buy right now?

Of the 19 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corp., 10 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MPC?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp. ranks 96 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Momentum (98 of 100).

Will MPC stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -9.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Marathon Petroleum Corp. 96 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MPC stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Marathon Petroleum Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MPC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $186 to $462 over the next 12 months.

How has MPC stock performed over the past year?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. returned +123.6% over the 12 months to 14 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Marathon Petroleum Corp. do?

Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

What is the latest news on MPC?

The most recent item we track (Schaeffers Research, 14 Sept 2026): "Oil Stock Nears Record High After Price-Target Boost". Marathon Petroleum Corporation shares rose 2% to trade at $403.70, as global oil prices climbed following Saudi Arabia's shutdown of a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The stock is approaching a record high.

Company

About Marathon Petroleum Corp.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. operates a large refining network that processes crude oil into transportation fuels and other petroleum products, while also handling storage, transportation, and marketing activities that move those products through the supply chain. Its business includes branded retail and wholesale fuel distribution across the United States, as well as ownership interests in MPLX LP, which supports gathering, processing, fractionation, and logistics infrastructure for crude oil and light products. The company also participates in renewable diesel operations, adding another segment to its broader energy portfolio. Marathon Petroleum Corp. plays a central role in U.S. fuel supply and energy logistics through its refining, marketing, and midstream capabilities.

CEO Ms. Maryann T. Mannen · 18,500 employees · United States · https://www.marathonpetroleum.com