HDConsumer Cyclical · Home Improvement RetailThe 36 Wall Street analysts covering The Home Depot, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $385 — +32.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 37 of 100 as at 12 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores The Home Depot, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (92): The share price has been relatively steady.
Momentum (32): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (1): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HD, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +32.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform | $354 → $344 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Reiterates | Buy | $400 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $377 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Reiterates | Buy | $425 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Keybanc | Reiterates | Sector Weight | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Keybanc | Reiterates | Sector Weight | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $385 → $390 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $343 → $342 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $369 → $373 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $430 → $420 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $320 → $340 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 12 Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $340 → $343 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HD appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 12 Oct 2026, The Home Depot, Inc. returned −20.5% against +20.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 37% of US stocks
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Cheaper than 5% of US stocks
Cheaper than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 41% of US stocks
Higher than 41% of US stocks
Higher than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
The Home Depot, Inc. has a market value of $290.1B and an enterprise value of $346.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $169.2B. The latest quarter grew 5.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $14.2B, a 8.4% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $14.29.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $15.1B, after $3.7B of capital spending.
The Home Depot, Inc. spent $9.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.
Trailing P/E: 20.3×; forward P/E: 18.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 3.21%, paying out 65% of earnings.
The Home Depot, Inc. employs 470,000 people — $360K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| HDThe Home Depot, Inc. | $290.1B | 37 |
| LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $104.1B | 38 |
| MCDMcDonald's Corp.* | $166.8B | 63 |
| TJXThe TJX Cos., Inc.* | $157.9B | 60 |
| BKNGBooking Holdings, Inc.* | $123.3B | 75 |
| SBUXStarbucks Corp.* | $104.9B | 86 |
| MARMarriott International, Inc.* | $97.9B | 66 |
* Nearest Consumer Cyclical names by size — few home improvement retail companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own The Home Depot, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Home Depot’s investments in AI, digital platforms, and Pro services are driving sales growth and faster deliveries. Housing market challenges persist.
Why it matters — These initiatives are supporting sales and delivery performance, while housing market conditions remain a challenge for HD.
A Seeking Alpha screen of 50 dividend-growth stocks says Home Depot improved its ranking, citing upgraded EPS growth estimates and/or favorable valuation shifts.
Why it matters — The ranking change gives HD watchers an update on how the stock compares within the screen’s dividend-growth universe.
Home Depot and Lowe's hit 52-week lows as higher home prices and rising 30-year mortgage rates have kept the housing market frozen. The expected boost to home-improvement retailers from homeowners staying put has not materialized.
Why it matters — The article highlights weak housing-market conditions and a lack of the anticipated benefit for Home Depot from homeowners remaining in their homes.
The excerpt says Jim Cramer credited a stock he openly dislikes with helping his portfolio after AI stocks fell, prompting a reflection on the role of less exciting stocks.
Why it matters — The item discusses the appeal of dividend stocks generally, a topic relevant to HD watchers, but the excerpt does not identify Home Depot as the stock in question.
The article says Home Depot’s premium valuation and weak stock momentum raise concerns, despite expansion in its Pro business and digital growth.
Why it matters — HD watchers may weigh the company’s business expansion and digital growth against concerns about valuation and momentum.
The 36 Wall Street analysts covering The Home Depot, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $385, with estimates ranging from $310 to $425. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 36 analysts covering The Home Depot, Inc., 22 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks The Home Depot, Inc. 37 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 12 Oct 2026, The Home Depot, Inc. ranks 37 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (92 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 36 analysts implies +32.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks The Home Depot, Inc. 37 out of 100 as at 12 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering The Home Depot, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HD are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $310 to $425 over the next 12 months.
The Home Depot, Inc. returned -20.5% over the 12 months to 12 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement retailer that serves do-it-yourself homeowners, professional contractors, and trade specialists across North America.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 12 Oct 2026): "How Are Strategic Investments Shaping Home Depot's Future?". Home Depot’s investments in AI, digital platforms, and Pro services are driving sales growth and faster deliveries. Housing market challenges persist.
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement retailer that serves do-it-yourself homeowners, professional contractors, and trade specialists across North America. The company offers a broad assortment of building materials, hardware, appliances, tools, plumbing, electrical, flooring, paint, décor, lawn and garden products, and facilities maintenance supplies. It also provides installation services, equipment rental, and delivery support, combining in-store retail with digital ordering and project assistance. The Home Depot is a major supplier to residential repair, renovation, remodeling, and light construction activity, with operations in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its business model centers on serving both everyday consumers and professional customers through a wide merchandise selection and service-oriented retail platform.
CEO Mr. Edward P. Decker · 470,000 employees · United States · https://www.homedepot.com
