MCDConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $295 — +25.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 63 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores McDonald's Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (99): The share price has been relatively steady.
Momentum (28): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MCD, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +25.4% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 12 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform | $295 → $250 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight | $305 → $280 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral | $290 → $250 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $300 → $270 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $260 → $250 |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Melius Research | Maintains | Sell | — |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Melius Research | Maintains | Sell | $250 → $230 |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $308 → $297 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $335 → $310 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 Sept 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Sept 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | $350 → $295 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $320 → $300 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 24 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $280 → $260 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $290 → $285 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 24 Sept 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MCD appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 9 Oct 2026, McDonald's Corp. returned −17.9% against +16.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 39% of US stocks
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Cheaper than 99% of US stocks
Cheaper than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 3% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
McDonald's Corp. has a market value of $167.6B and an enterprise value of $217.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $27.7B. The latest quarter grew 3.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $8.8B, a 31.7% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.31.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.8B, after $3.6B of capital spending.
McDonald's Corp. spent $2.3B on share buybacks and $5.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 19.2×; forward P/E: 17.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 3.15%, paying out 60% of earnings.
McDonald's Corp. employs 150,000 people — $185K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own McDonald's Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
McDonald’s closed the most recent trading day at $236.90, up 2.61% from the previous session, despite the market dipping.
Why it matters — The session’s gain is a data point for MCD watchers tracking the stock’s daily performance relative to the broader market.
Starbucks shares fell 3% in morning trading after a report that the coffee chain had explored taking over a fast-casual rival. Chipotle shares were reported at $32, while McDonald’s ticked up, according to the headline.
Why it matters — The takeover report and moves in restaurant stocks provide relevant sector context for McDonald’s watchers.
Invezz reports that the S&P 500 gained 4.3% over three months, while the consumer staples ETF (XLP) fell about 4% and the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) fell about 5%.
Why it matters — The divergence highlights weaker recent performance across consumer-related sectors relevant to McDonald’s.
Seeking Alpha argues that same-store sales are an overrated measure of McDonald’s growth, citing store expansion and loyalty-program momentum alongside H1 sales growth of 6% and operating-profit growth of 7%. It also says the shares’ decline has eased valuation concerns and describes the dividend and buybacks as supported by cash flow.
Why it matters — MCD watchers may weigh broader growth drivers and cash-flow support for shareholder payouts alongside same-store sales when assessing the company.
A Seeking Alpha contributor says McDonald’s franchise-heavy model and long-term EPS growth support the company, while its $8.5 billion NEXT plan through 2036 could help affordability and franchisee profits. The article also notes that inflation, weak demand and slower buybacks could constrain returns.
Why it matters — The piece highlights both potential benefits of McDonald’s franchising model and operational pressures that could affect affordability and franchisee profitability.
The 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $295, with estimates ranging from $230 to $390. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 34 analysts covering McDonald's Corp., 19 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 63 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 8 Oct 2026, McDonald's Corp. ranks 63 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (99 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 34 analysts implies +25.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 63 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering McDonald's Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MCD are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $230 to $390 over the next 12 months.
McDonald's Corp. returned -17.9% over the 12 months to 9 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
McDonald’s Corporation is a global quick-service restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand across the United States and international markets. Its business is centered on serving a broad menu of breakfast, lunch, and dinner offerings, including burgers, chicken, beverages, coffee, desserts, and value meal combinations designed for convenient, everyday dining.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 8 Oct 2026): "Why the Market Dipped But McDonald's (MCD) Gained Today". McDonald’s closed the most recent trading day at $236.90, up 2.61% from the previous session, despite the market dipping.
McDonald’s Corporation is a global quick-service restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand across the United States and international markets. Its business is centered on serving a broad menu of breakfast, lunch, and dinner offerings, including burgers, chicken, beverages, coffee, desserts, and value meal combinations designed for convenient, everyday dining. The company also supports its system through digital ordering, loyalty programs, delivery partnerships, and restaurant technology that improve customer access and operational efficiency. McDonald’s serves consumers through a largely franchised model, with restaurants located in urban, suburban, travel, and community settings. It also plays an important role in the food service industry by combining a globally recognized brand with standardized operations, supply chain coordination, and a large network of independent franchisees. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald’s Corporation remains one of the most influential names in global restaurant services.
CEO Mr. Christopher J. Kempczinski · 150,000 employees · United States · https://www.mcdonalds.com
