MCDConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $306 — +11.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 46 of 100 as at 10 Aug 2026 — in the lower half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores McDonald's Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (100): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (23): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (1): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MCD, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +11.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 10 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral | $320 → $290 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy | $350 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $335 → $345 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight | $315 → $305 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $305 → $295 |
| 31 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $300 → $290 |
| 27 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $365 → $340 |
| 27 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 July 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | $370 → $350 |
| 24 July 2026 | BTIG | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 23 July 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $350 → $320 |
| 23 July 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 17 July 2026 | Tigress Financial | Maintains | Buy | $385 → $390 |
| 17 July 2026 | Tigress Financial | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $331 → $322 |
| 16 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 16 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $320 → $300 |
| 16 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 15 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 15 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $375 → $335 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MCD appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 36% of US stocks
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Cheaper than 99% of US stocks
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Higher than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 3% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own McDonald's Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Motley Fool published a stock analysis piece on McDonald's discussing the buy-or-sell question. The report notes that McDonald's revenue growth rate is decelerating.
Why it matters — A slowdown in McDonald's revenue growth is a key development for investors tracking the company's operating momentum.
McDonald's has pushed back its goal of reaching 50,000 stores to 2028, citing softening U.S. traffic. The company still plans about 2,600 store openings in 2026 as part of a disciplined expansion strategy.
Why it matters — A delay in the flagship store-count target signals a change in McDonald's growth pace amid softer U.S. demand, giving watchers a gauge of near-term expansion expectations.
U.S. fast-food chains including McDonald's, which spent the second quarter competing to attract price-conscious diners, found that discounts alone were no longer sufficient to keep customers returning.
Why it matters — For McDonald's watchers, this suggests that relying on value deals may no longer be an effective way to maintain customer traffic.
The Motley Fool reports that the Dow is outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in 2026, and highlights McDonald's alongside Procter & Gamble and Home Depot as Dow stocks with resilient businesses that generate cash and return it to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, even as tech stocks get shaky.
Why it matters — The piece presents McDonald's as a steady, cash-generating Dow stock whose strong brand and shareholder returns offer an alternative when tech falters, which is relevant for those following MCD.
A Seeking Alpha comparison notes that Restaurant Brands International continues to outperform McDonald's in earnings growth and market share gains, posting 8.5% US same-store sales growth versus MCD's 0.8%. Despite QSR's superior business momentum, McDonald's maintains a valuation premium of over 25% on free cash flow and 17% on forward price-to-earnings.
Why it matters — McDonald's watchers would note that the company is lagging a key competitor on growth metrics while retaining a higher valuation, a dynamic that could warrant scrutiny of how its business momentum compares.
The 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $306, with estimates ranging from $250 to $407. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 34 analysts covering McDonald's Corp., 19 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 46 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 10 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 10 Aug 2026, McDonald's Corp. ranks 46 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (100 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 34 analysts implies +11.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 46 out of 100 as at 10 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering McDonald's Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MCD are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $250 to $407 over the next 12 months.
McDonald's Corp. returned -7.8% over the 12 months to 11 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
McDonald's Corporation is a global restaurant company that operates and franchises quick-service restaurants under the McDonald’s brand. Its business centers on serving a broad menu of burgers, chicken, breakfast items, beverages, and desserts through a large network of company-operated and franchised locations.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 12 Aug 2026): "McDonald's Stock Analysis: Buy or Sell?". The Motley Fool published a stock analysis piece on McDonald's discussing the buy-or-sell question. The report notes that McDonald's revenue growth rate is decelerating.
McDonald's Corporation is a global restaurant company that operates and franchises quick-service restaurants under the McDonald’s brand. Its business centers on serving a broad menu of burgers, chicken, breakfast items, beverages, and desserts through a large network of company-operated and franchised locations. The company’s current model emphasizes convenience, consistency, and broad customer reach, supported by digital ordering, delivery, and loyalty programs that connect its restaurants with everyday consumers across urban, suburban, and travel markets. McDonald’s also plays a significant role in the food service industry through its scale, standardized operations, and relationships with suppliers, franchisees, and local markets. Founded in 1940 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald’s Corporation remains one of the most recognizable names in global dining.
CEO Mr. Christopher J. Kempczinski · 150,000 employees · United States · https://www.mcdonalds.com