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MCD Stock Forecast: McDonald's Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 17 Sept 2026
$248
−0.03% on the day

The 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $305 — +22.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 63 of 100 as at 17 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$175.9B
Ticker Nerd rank
63 / 100
Median analyst target
$305
Analysts covering
34
Revenue$7.1B+3.8% y/y
Operating income$3.3B
Net income$2.4B
Free cash flow$2.0B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−1.8%
1M
−5.8%
YTD
−17.1%
1Y
−16.4%
From 52W high
−25.7%
From 52W low
0.0%
$248
$335
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MCD stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores McDonald's Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 17 Sept 2026
63 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
100
Issuance
92
Quality
88
Growth
61
Value
58
Revisions
55
Accruals
45
Momentum
31
Size
2

Volatility (100): The share price has been relatively steady.

Momentum (31): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MCD stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MCD, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$250$300$350$400Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MCDHigh $407Median $305Low $250

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says34 analysts
19 Buy14 Hold1 Sell
Low $250Median $305High $407

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +22.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 9 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
16 Sept 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy$350
16 Sept 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatesNeutral—
15 Sept 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$295 → $290
14 Sept 2026Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy$325 → $300
14 Sept 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight$319 → $308
11 Sept 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold$300 → $282
26 Aug 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$320 → $310
26 Aug 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy—
6 Aug 2026GuggenheimMaintainsNeutral$320 → $290
6 Aug 2026GuggenheimMaintainsNeutral—
5 Aug 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy—
5 Aug 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy$350
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$335 → $345
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
5 Aug 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight—
5 Aug 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight$315 → $305
5 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
5 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$305 → $295
31 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
31 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$300 → $290

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MCD appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MCD vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 17 Sept 2026, McDonald's Corp. returned −16.4% against +17.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MCD vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MCDS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MCD analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−0.4%
Analysts raising
14
Analysts cutting
13
Fundamentals

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
20.2×

Cheaper than 37% of US stocks

Price / sales
6.3×

Cheaper than 20% of US stocks

Price / book
−171.8×

Cheaper than 99% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
15.4×

Cheaper than 22% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.7%

Higher than 35% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
4.8%

Higher than 42% of US stocks

Gross margin
58.0%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Operating margin
46.5%

Higher than 95% of US stocks

Net margin
31.7%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−478.1%

Higher than 3% of US stocks

Return on assets
13.3%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.0%

Higher than 63% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • McDonald's Corp. has a market value of $175.9B and an enterprise value of $229.7B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $27.7B. The latest quarter grew 3.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $8.8B, a 31.7% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.31.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.8B, after $3.6B of capital spending.

  • McDonald's Corp. spent $2.3B on share buybacks and $5.2B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 707.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 20.2×; forward P/E: 17.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.99%, paying out 60% of earnings.

  • McDonald's Corp. employs 150,000 people — $185K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 17 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MCD vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRestaurants
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MCDMcDonald's Corp.$175.9B
63
SBUXStarbucks Corp.$109.9B
88
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.$43.0B
56
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.$37.7B
50
QSRRestaurant Brands International, Inc.$33.3B
63
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.$23.7B
76
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.$14.6B
89

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own McDonald's Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MCD news & analysis

McDONALD'S MARKS 50 CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF DIVIDEND INCREASES, JOINING THE RANKS OF DIVIDEND KINGS

PRNewsWire · 17 Sept 2026positive

McDonald's board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.93 per share, a 4% increase, marking 50 consecutive years of dividend increases and qualifying the company as a Dividend King. The company said it will provide more details on its next phase of growth at its Investor Day on September 23, 2026.

Why it matters — This milestone highlights McDonald's durable growth and disciplined capital allocation, reinforcing its track record of rewarding shareholders through consistent dividend increases over five decades.

McDonald's CEO Admits Execution Failure as K-Shape Economy Splits Consumer Base

24/7 Wall Street · 17 Sept 2026negative

McDonald's CEO acknowledged execution failures as the company struggles despite record retail spending. The article highlights a widening split in the American consumer base, describing a K-shaped economy that is weighing on McDonald's performance.

Why it matters — McDonald's investors would care because the CEO's admission of execution problems and the company's underperformance relative to record consumer spending signal challenges to its resilience as a defensive stock.

One of These 3 Companies Is One Year From Becoming a Dividend King. Here Is Which One

24/7 Wall Street · 17 Sept 2026neutral

A 24/7 Wall Street article profiles three long-tenured Dividend Aristocrats, noting that only one is genuinely within reach of becoming a Dividend King, which requires at least 50 consecutive years of dividend increases. The piece discusses which of the three companies is closest to reaching that milestone.

Why it matters — MCD watchers may be interested because the article's assessment of long-term dividend track records could speak to McDonald's standing relative to other blue-chip dividend payers.

Forget The Real Estate Story: McDonald's Brand Value Is The Real Catalyst

Seeking Alpha · 17 Sept 2026neutral

A Seeking Alpha article argues that McDonald's brand value, evidenced by 220 million active app users, is a key catalyst rather than its real estate story. It notes the stock is trading at historically low valuation multiples while flagging rising competition and weaker traffic as key risks.

Why it matters — For MCD watchers, this piece weighs the strength of the company's brand loyalty and app engagement against competitive and traffic headwinds when assessing its valuation.

McDonald's (MCD) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Sept 2026positive

On the latest trading day, McDonald's (MCD) settled at $257.49, a gain of +1.96% from its previous close, rising even as the broader market dipped.

Why it matters — The share-price gain amid a market dip highlights how MCD's stock performed on this trading day, which is relevant context for those tracking the company.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MCD stock

What is the MCD stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 34 Wall Street analysts covering McDonald's Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $305, with estimates ranging from $250 to $407. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MCD stock a buy right now?

Of the 34 analysts covering McDonald's Corp., 19 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 63 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 17 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MCD?

As at 17 Sept 2026, McDonald's Corp. ranks 63 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (100 of 100).

Will MCD stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 34 analysts implies +22.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks McDonald's Corp. 63 out of 100 as at 17 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MCD stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering McDonald's Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MCD are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $250 to $407 over the next 12 months.

How has MCD stock performed over the past year?

McDonald's Corp. returned -16.4% over the 12 months to 17 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does McDonald's Corp. do?

McDonald's Corp. is a global quick-service restaurant company that operates and franchises a large network of restaurants serving burgers, chicken, breakfast items, beverages, and desserts.

What is the latest news on MCD?

The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 17 Sept 2026): "McDONALD'S MARKS 50 CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF DIVIDEND INCREASES, JOINING THE RANKS OF DIVIDEND KINGS". McDonald's board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.93 per share, a 4% increase, marking 50 consecutive years of dividend increases and qualifying the company as a Dividend King. The company said it will provide more details on its next phase of growth at its Investor Day on September 23, 2026.

Company

About McDonald's Corp.

McDonald's Corp. is a global quick-service restaurant company that operates and franchises a large network of restaurants serving burgers, chicken, breakfast items, beverages, and desserts. The company’s business is built around a heavily franchised model that combines restaurant operations, real estate, supply chain coordination, and brand management. Its menu is centered on everyday convenience and value, with offerings that vary by region to reflect local tastes and consumer preferences. McDonald's Corp. also uses digital ordering, delivery partnerships, and loyalty programs to support customer engagement across dine-in, takeout, drive-thru, and mobile channels. The company serves consumers in the mass-market food service sector and plays a significant role in global fast food through its scale, standardized operating system, and broad international presence. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald's Corp. remains one of the most recognized names in the restaurant industry.

CEO Mr. Christopher J. Kempczinski · 150,000 employees · United States · https://www.mcdonalds.com