CMGConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 35 Wall Street analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $44 — +43.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 58 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (83): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Growth (38): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (6): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CMG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +43.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $40 → $37 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Seaport Global | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Seaport Global | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | $50 → $53 |
| 1 Sept 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Reiterates | Outperform | $43 |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Baird | Downgrade | Neutral | $44 → $40 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Baird | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 5 Aug 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy | $45 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $40 → $45 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral | $35 → $36 |
| 30 July 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 30 July 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy | $45 |
| 30 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $45 → $50 |
| 30 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CMG appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 7 Oct 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. returned −24.9% against +17.7% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 27% of US stocks
Cheaper than 38% of US stocks
Cheaper than 5% of US stocks
Cheaper than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 74% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 93% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a market value of $39.0B and an enterprise value of $43.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.4B. The latest quarter grew 9.3% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.4B, a 11.4% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.09.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.6B.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. spent $2.8B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 28.3×; forward P/E: 22.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. employs 140,000 people — $89K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Cedar Grove Capital reported that it closed its short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill during the quarter, alongside several other short positions.
Why it matters — The update records a change in one investor’s CMG position, without providing further detail about the reason.
Chipotle is targeting a national catering launch in 2027, following encouraging pilot results and stronger demand for family meals.
Why it matters — The launch could create a new sales opportunity for CMG, building on interest shown in pilots and family meals.
Schaeffers Research describes volatile trading at the start of October amid swings in Treasury yields and crude prices, with weaker-than-expected September payrolls data contributing to a Friday sentiment rebound. It presents a list of 25 stocks to avoid during a period of uncertainty.
Why it matters — The excerpt does not identify Chipotle among the 25 stocks, so it offers no company-specific information for CMG watchers.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock fell 4%, with selling outpacing the broader restaurant group. Larger rivals, including McDonald's and Starbucks, also saw their shares dip, but the gap between CMG and its larger competitors was highlighted as a notable market signal.
Why it matters — Chipotle watchers would care because the stock's sell-off is running ahead of the rest of the restaurant sector, suggesting CMG is facing more intense selling pressure than its larger rivals.
Chipotle partnered with the London Vegetable Orchestra to record an original song, "From Ground to Sound," at Abbey Road Studios using only instruments made from vegetables served at its restaurants. The track, which took three months of experimentation to create, was first previewed at the end of Chipotle's 100 Creators campaign in August.
Why it matters — This reflects Chipotle's creative brand-marketing efforts, which could help generate cultural attention and consumer engagement around its fresh-produce focus.
The 35 Wall Street analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $44, with estimates ranging from $35 to $53. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 35 analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., 23 rate it a Buy, 12 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 58 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 6 Oct 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ranks 58 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (83 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 35 analysts implies +43.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 58 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CMG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $35 to $53 over the next 12 months.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. returned -24.9% over the 12 months to 7 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a fast-casual restaurant company that operates and develops Chipotle Mexican Grill locations across the United States and select international markets.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 7 Oct 2026): "Cedar Grove Capital Q3 2026 Portfolio Update". Cedar Grove Capital reported that it closed its short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill during the quarter, alongside several other short positions.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a fast-casual restaurant company that operates and develops Chipotle Mexican Grill locations across the United States and select international markets. The company focuses on Mexican-inspired menu offerings, including burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and salads prepared with fresh ingredients and customizable protein, rice, bean, and topping combinations. Chipotle also provides digital ordering through its app and website, along with delivery and pickup options that support off-premise dining. Its restaurant model emphasizes speed, convenience, and made-to-order meals, making it a prominent name in the quick-service and fast-casual dining segment. Chipotle Mexican Grill serves consumers, families, and on-the-go customers seeking casual meals in a streamlined dining format.
CEO Mr. Scott Boatwright · 140,000 employees · United States · https://www.chipotle.com
